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In the big tech-dominated era, data has been commercially exploited for so long that it is now hard to imagine that data sharing might also benefit the community. Yet that is what a collective of businesses, governments, social institutions and residents in Amsterdam aim to do. Sharing more data to better care for the city. On behalf of the Data Commons Collective, Lia Hsu (Strategic Advisor at Amsterdam Economic Board) asked the Amsterdam Smart City network for input and feedback on their Data Commons initiative on the last Demoday of 2023.

What is a (data) common?

Commons are natural resources that are accessible to everyone within a community. Water. Fertile soil. Clean air. Actually everything the earth has given us. We as humanity have increasingly begun to exploit these commons in our pursuit of power and profit maximisation. As a result, we risk exhausting them.

Data is a new, digital resource: a valuable commodity that can be used to improve products and services. Data can thus also be used for the common good. However there are two important differences between a common and a data common: data in commons never runs out, and data in commons is not tied to any geographical location or sociocultural groups.

Four principles for Data Commons

The Data Commons collective is currently working on different applied use cases to understand how data commons can help with concrete solutions to pressing societal problems in the areas of energy, green urban development, mobility, health and culture. Each data commons serves a different purpose and requires a different implementation, but there are four principles that are always the same:

1. The data common is used to serve a public or community purpose
2. The data common requires cooperation between different parties, such as individuals, companies or public institutions
3. The data common is managed according to principles that are acceptable to users and that define who may access the data commons under what conditions, in what ways they may be used, for what purpose, what is meant by data misuse
4. The data common is embedded to manage data quality, but also to monitor compliance with the principles and ensure that data misuse is also noticed and that an appropriate response (such as a reprimand, penalty or fine) follows.

The Data Commons Collective is now in the process of developing a framework, which provides a self-assessment tool to guide the formation of Data Commons initiatives by triggering consideration of relevant aspects for creating a data commons. It is a means of reflection, rather than prescription, to encourage sustainable and responsible data initiatives.

Energy Data Commons case and Value Workshop by Waag

After the introduction to the Data Commons Collective and Framework by Simone van der Burg (Waag) and Roos de Jong (Deloitte), the participants engaged in a value workshop led by Simone. The case we worked with: we’re dealing with a shortage of affordable and clean energy. Congestion issues are only expected to get worse, due to increased energy use by households en businesses. An energy Data Commons in neighbourhoods can have certain benefits. Such as preventing congestion issues, using clean energy sources more effectively, becoming self-sufficient as a neighbourhood and reducing costs. But under what circumstances would we want to share our energy data with our neighbours? What are the values that we find important when it comes to sharing our energy data?

Results: Which values are important when sharing our energy data?

In smaller groups, the participants discussed which values they found important for an energy data common using a value card deck from Waag. Some values that were mentioned were:

• Trustworthiness: It is important to trust one another when sharing our energy data. It helps when we assume that everyone that is part of the common has the right intentions.
• Fun: The energy Data Commons should be fun and positive! The participants discussed gamification and rewards as part of the common.
• Knowledge: One of the goals of sharing data with each other is to gain more knowledge about energy consumption and saving.
• Justice and solidarity: If everyone in the common feels safe and acknowledged, it will benefit the outcome. Everyone in the common should be treated equally.
• Inclusion and Community-feeling: It is important that people feel involved in the project. The Data Commons should improve our lives, make it more sustainable but also progress our social relations.

During this Demoday, we got to know the Data Commons collective and experienced which values we find important when sharing our data with others. Amsterdam Economic Board will remain involved in the Data Commons Collective in a coordinating role and work on use cases to understand how data commons can work for society.

Would you like to know more about the Data Commons Collective or do you have any input for them? Please feel free to reach out to me via sophie@amsterdamsmartcity.com or leave a comment below.

On Thursday December 14th, Amsterdam Smart City partners concluded 2023 with an afternoon full of inspiration, exchange and connections at our 22nd Demoday! Our partner Deloitte welcomed our network in The Garage, where their ‘Deloitte Studios’ department is located. In this article, we’ll give you a quick overview of the Knowledge Session, Work Sessions and Pitches. Interesting in learning more? Read the full reports by our Programme Managers Noor, Pelle and Sophie (linked below).

About our Demodays

The Demodays are one of the tools we use to stimulate innovation and encourage connection between our partners and community. The purpose of the Demodays is to present the progress of various innovation projects, ask for help, share dilemmas and involve more partners to take these projects to the next level. More information about the Demodays can be found here.

Knowledge Session: Change in the here and now, with Theory U

To kick-off our final Demoday of 2023, our brand-new partner Hieroo led an inspiring knowledge session about the change method they use for social innovation in the city: Theory U. Dorien Schneider and Maartje Krijnen taught us more about this methodology and how it can help us solve complex problems by shifting from ego to eco-thinking. Read the full report here.

Work sessions

After the plenary Knowledge Session we split up in different worksessions, each exploring regional innovation challenges. As always, we had set up the sessions’ topics and moderation in collaboration with our partners.

Mobility | Decision-making along the principles of Inclusive Prosperity – Jurhan Kwee (Municipality of Amsterdam)
In The Netherlands, the concept of ‘Inclusive Prosperity’ is on the rise. Policy makers are busy defining this concept, figuring out how to put this concept into practice and what it means for their decision-making process. Together with his colleagues at the Municipality of Amsterdam, Yurhan Kwee hosts sessions on decision-making along the principles of Inclusive Prosperity. With the input he gathers, he hopes to make the decisions needed for our Inclusive Prosperity ambitions more understandable and transparent, both for Amsterdam’s administrators and councillors as well as its citizens. Read Pelle’s recap article here.

Digital | Data Commons Collective: Using data for a liveable city – Lia Hsu (Amsterdam Economic Board) and Simone van der Burg (Waag)
In the big tech-dominated era, data has been commercially exploited for so long that it is now hard to imagine that data sharing might also benefit the community. Yet that is what a collective of businesses, governments, social institutions and residents in Amsterdam aim to do. Sharing more data to better care for the city. On behalf of the Data Commons Collective, Lia Hsu (Strategic Advisor at Amsterdam Economic Board) asked the Amsterdam Smart City network for input and feedback on their Data Commons initiative. Read Sophie's recap article here.

Energy | How can we continue to facilitate the homeowner in driving the energy transition? | Wouter van Rooijen (Alliander)
Wouter van Rooijen (Alliander) discussed the challenges related to grid congestion. From 2030 onwards, it is expected that a significant portion of the low-voltage network will experience both over- and under-voltage. While the network will be reinforced as quickly as possible, the lack of labour capacity is also prompting the consideration of alternative solutions.

The solution that emerged from Wouter's co-creation process was WijkWise. In this work session, Wouter aimed to validate the WijkWise concept and find parties that could contribute to its development and market implementation. Dave van Loon from Kennisland moderated the session. Read Noor’s recap article here.

Circular | Navigating eco-emotions: The impact of working in sustainability on your mental wellbeing| Marian Zandbergen (Hogeschool van Amsterdam)
This work session, led by Marian Zandbergen (CIRCOLLAB, HvA) and moderated by Mareille de Bloois (Royal HaskoningDHV), explored the challenges and opportunities associated with eco-emotions, both personally and within organizations. The key question addressed was: How can individuals and organisations constructively manage eco-emotions, and what implications does this have for organisations? Read Noor’s recap article here.

Pitches

To end this festive afternoon and the year 2023 as a whole, we invited project owners and -members to present their progress and next steps on topics brought in during our events and deep-dives throughout 2023. The following projects were presented. You can read more about these topics on their dedicated articles and project pages, linked below.

Local Energy Systems: Where we started, what we have achieved, and what are the next steps – Omar Shafqat (University of Applied Sciences Amsterdam)

Connecting the resource- and energy transition – Edwin Oskam (MRA)

ChatGPT and the government: Possibilities and impact on our work – Jeroen Silvis (Province of North Holland)

Floating urban districts: Future-proof living in the Metropolitan Region – Joke Dufourmont (AMS Institute)

Mobility Justice: Raising the topic of Mobility Poverty and the working group’s progress – Bas Gerbrandy (Province of North Holland)

Our next Demoday will take place in April. Do you have an inspiring story or project you want to pitch to the Amsterdam Smart City network? Let us know via sophie@amsterdamsmartcity.com

*This article makes use of the term Inclusive Prosperity as the English translation for the Dutch word; ‘Brede Welvaart’

In The Netherlands, the concept of Inclusive Prosperity* is on the rise. Policy makers are busy defining this concept, figuring out how to put this concept into practice and what it means for their decision-making process. Together with his colleagues at the Municipality of Amsterdam, Yurhan Kwee hosts sessions on decision-making along the principles of Inclusive Prosperity. With the input he gathers, he hopes to make the decisions needed for our Inclusive Prosperity ambitions more understandable and transparent, both for Amsterdam’s administrators and councillors as well as its citizens.

Inclusive Prosperity

Inclusive Prosperity is about more than just money. It involves everything that people consider valuable, such as health, the quality of education, the environment, a safe living environment, and equal opportunities for everyone. It's about the quality of life in the present, and the extent to which this affects the prosperity of future generations or those of people elsewhere in the world.

According to the definition, used by the Municipality, there are 8 themes to consider:

1. Subjective Well-being

Subjective well-being refers to the evaluation people make of their lives. Consider the question, "How satisfied are you with life in general?"

2. Health

The theme of Health encompasses physical illnesses and conditions, as well as mental health, living with limitations, perceived health, and self-regulation and resilience.

3. Consumption and Income

The theme of Consumption and Income refers to how income provides people with the freedom and opportunities to consume, including purchasing services and goods, maintaining a financial buffer, and shaping one's lifestyle.

4. Education and Training

Thinking about the theme of Education and Training involves the transfer of knowledge and skills, socialization, and considering the education or training experiences of individuals.

5. Spatial Quality and Cohesion

Regarding the theme of Spatial Cohesion and Quality, consider the following: a qualitatively well-designed space is a crucial precondition for the perceived broad prosperity. This includes spatial design on a functional level and with a focus on the future.

6. Economic Capital

Depending on the case, consider how it relates to:

• Human capital: the combination of competencies, knowledge, and skills;
• Physical capital: material possessions, such as machinery, buildings, and infrastructure;
• Knowledge capital: intangible assets, such as research and development, data, and patents;
• Financial capital: the financial resources of households and the government (purchasing power).

7. Natural Capital

Natural Capital refers to the stock of natural resources. Consider items such as (drinking) water, food, minerals, wind-sun-water energy, biodiversity, etc. Assess whether they are sufficiently available, in shortage, or if there is damage to these resources.

8. Social Capital

The concept of Social Capital often refers to the benefits of social networks, such as access to information and resources. This involves connections within and between groups. Positive effects can lead to trust, while negative effects can lead to loneliness.

Experimenting (with Mobility related policies) in public space

The case we used during this session is the use of experiments in public space, altering mobility or travel infrastructure. The months leading up to this afternoon, Amsterdam had put different experiments into practice (e.g. de ‘knip’ and de ‘paaltjesproef’) resulting in heated discussions, about both the success and desirability of using this method.

In a more objective manner, we used the Broad Prosperity principles to argue why its either desirable or undesirable to put such methods into practice.

Results

The group agreed that these Amsterdam experiments, concerned with creating calmer, more liveable urban areas, score well within themes like; Health (less air & noise pollution), Nature (more space for green and biodiversity), Social capital (more space and opportunity to meet and interact), Spacial quality (less dangerous and more moving space) and education (experimenting, learning by doing, viewing urban planning as experimenting and an ongoing learning process). However, as this year’s backlash on the experiments showed, there are some negative aspects to consider. Examples of domains in which we found some negative aspects, were; Economy (decreased speed and efficiency), Consumption & Income (local shop- and restaurant-owners need to be flexible and could be victims of changing infrastructure) and Subjective Well-being (citizens feel used, disadvantaged, and there is ambiguity about the purpose).

We found it difficult to arrive at a common answer because advantages and disadvantages exist on each theme separately. However, there was a common notion that the success of this method is rooted in clear and transparent communication on the effects and goals of such experiment. Frustration should be minimized and the opposing arguments should be taken seriously. Furthermore, we discussed the difference between a ‘real’ experiment in which every outcome is a success, and a trial, which is used to test a policy that’s envisioned for future years. The one who initiates the experiment should have this very clear for itself.

While one of the strengths of this method is the need to value these different domains in a more equal and objective manner, it proved to be difficult in practice. We all had the tendency to give some aspects more weight than others. While we were supposed to set up an advice and practice with decision-making along the principles of Inclusive Prosperity, it turned out to be challenging to let go of our prior experience, prejudices and opinions on this subject. We weren’t sure whether this is always a negative thing, but it’s one of the considerations Yurhan took home in the Municipality’s exploration of this approach.

Together, we experienced the challenge of working together with a new concept and approach. It should be an ongoing practice and discussion, a collective effort. Sessions like these serve that purpose perfectly.

Feel free to get in touch with me if you want to know more about the municipality’s and Amsterdam Economic Board’s efforts on the topic of Inclusive Prosperity.

Carlos Moreno, a professor at the Sorbonne University, helped Mayor Anne Hidalgo develop the idea of the 15-minute city. He said that six things made people happy: living, working, amenities, education, wellbeing, and recreation. The quality of the urban environment is enhanced when these functions are realized near each other. The monofunctional expansion of cities in the US, but also in the bidonvilles of Paris, is a thorn in his side, partly because this justifies owning a car.
 
A more precise definition of the concept of the 15-minute city is needed before it can be implemented on a large scale. It is important to clarify which means of transport must be available to reach certain facilities in a given number of minutes. The list of facilities is usually very comprehensive, while the list of means of transport is usually only vaguely defined. But the distance you can travel in 15 minutes depends on the availability of certain modes of transport (see figure above).
Advocates of "new urbanism" have developed the tools to design 15-minute cities. They are based on three zones: the 5-minute walking zone, the 15-minute walking zone, which coincides with the 5-minute cycling zone, and finally the 15-minute cycling zone. These are not static concepts: In practice, the zones overlap and complement each other.

The 5-minute walking zone

This zone corresponds to the way in which most residential neighbourhoods functioned up until the 1960s, wherever you are in the world. Imagine a space with an average distance from the center to the edge of about 400 meters. In the center you will find a limited number of shops, a (small) supermarket, one or more cafes and a restaurant. The number of residents will vary between two and three thousand. Density will decrease from the centre and the main streets outwards. Green spaces, including a small neighbourhood park, will be distributed throughout the neighbourhood, as will workshops and offices.
In the case of new construction, it is essential that pedestrian areas have a dense network of paths without crossings at ground level with streets where car traffic is allowed. Some paths are wider and allow cycling within the 5- and 15-minute cycle zones. The streets provide access to concentrated parking facilities.

The 5-minute cycle zone and the 15-minute walking zone.

Here the distance from the center to the edge is about one kilometer. In this area, most of the facilities that residents need is available and can be distributed around the centers of the 5-minute walking zones. For example, a slightly larger supermarket may be located between two 5-minute walking zones. This zone will also contain one or more larger parks and some larger concentrations of employment.
This zone can be a large district of a city, but it can also be a small municipality or district of around 15 to 25,000 inhabitants. With such a population there will be little room for dogmatic design, especially when it comes to existing buildings. But even then, it is possible to separate traffic types by keeping cars off many streets and clustering car parks. The bottom line is that all destinations in this zone can be reached quickly by walking and cycling, and that car routes can be crossed safely.
The car will be used (occasionally) for several destinations. For example, for large shopping trips to the supermarket.

The 15-minute cycle zone.

This zone will be home to 100.00 or more residents. The large variation is due to the (accidental) presence of facilities for a larger catchment area, such as an industrial estate, a furniture boulevard or an IKEA, a university or a (regional) hospital. It is certainly not a sum of comparable 5-minute cycle zones. Nevertheless, the aim is to distribute functions over the whole area on as small a scale as possible. In practice, this zone is also crossed by several roads for car traffic. The network of cycle paths provides the most direct links between the 5-minute cycle zones and the wider area.
 
The main urban development objectives for this zone are good accessibility to urban facilities by public transport from all neighbourhoods, the prohibition of hypermarkets and a certain distribution of central functions throughout the area: Residents should be able to go out and have fun in a few places and not just in a central part of the city.
 
Below you can link to my free downloadable e-book: 25 Building blocks to create better streets, neighborhoods and cities.

We live in a time characterized by significant challenges. We see a world around us facing a climate crisis with global issues such as global warming and loss of biodiversity. A world marked by social inequality and increasing individualization. Change is urgently needed, but it doesn't happen automatically. How can we change the world around us with a holistic view?

To kick-off our final Demoday of 2023, our brand-new partner Hieroo led an inspiring knowledge session about the change method they use for social innovation in the city: Theory U. Dorien Schneider and Maartje Krijnen taught us more about this methodology and how it can help us solve complex problems by shifting from ego to eco-thinking.

What is Theory U?

Theory U is a change management method coined by Otto Scharmer from the Presencing Institute. Scharmer describes Theory U as a “way of being, a framework, a common language and a methodology”. Theory U can help us solve a problem, in a different way than we normally do. In our day-to-day lives, we make limited observations and quickly draw our conclusions – a phenomenon Scharmer terms “Downloading”. We then rush to solutions, because our brains don’t like uncertainty and want to be in control. Theory U is a way to fundamentally change when more of the same doesn’t work. The journey through the “U” consists of 7 stages:

1. Downloading past patterns
2. Seeing with fresh eyes
3. Co-sensing into the field
4. Presencing: connecting to the source
5. Crystallizing: vision & intention
6. Prototyping: linking head, heart and hand
7. Performing: by operating from the whole

Why Theory U?

Otto Scharmer describes three divides that require a drastic shift from an “ego-system” to an eco-system that emphasises collective well-being. These divides can be illustrated with three numbers that represent the divides.

• The ecological divide: we’re experiencing an unprecedented loss of nature. The number 1.6 represents this divide: our world economy consumes the resources of 1.5 planets. The ecological divide exists because of a disconnect between self and nature.
• The social divide: we’re experiencing immense polarisation, individualisation and inequity. The number 8 represents this divide: eight billionaires own as much as half of mankind combined. The social divide exists because of a disconnect between self and others.
• The spiritual divide: we’re experiencing an absence of deeper meaning, purpose and value in our lives. The number 2010 represents this divide: in this year, more people died from suicide then from accidents, wars and natural disasters together. The spiritual divide exists because of a disconnect between self and Self – that is, between a current “self” and the emerging future “Self” that represents one’s greatest potential.

In essence, we’re collectively creating results that nobody wants: a loss of nature, a loss of society and a loss of self. Theory U can help overcome these divides by shifting to a mindset where we care about the wellbeing of others instead of just looking out for ourselves.

Theory U in practice

So how does Theory U work in practice? Maartje and Dorien explained how Theory U is applied in projects at Hieroo. One example is the BROODerhood (pun on the word "brood” which means bread in Dutch) project in Bospolder-Tussendijken. This neighbourhood was struggling to control a rat plague. Hieroo used Theory U to come to a solution, together with the residents of the neighbourhood. An important observation (“downloading”) was that there was a lot of bread on the streets in the area. An easy quick fix would be to street signs that would warn against feeding ducks bread, for example. In the “sensing” stage, local residents were interviewed about the issue. It turned out that most people did not want to waste the bread and therefore left it for others, based on their cultural values. The project BROODerhood, aims to celebrate the value of bread through the process of breadmaking. The bread that residents would normally be left on the streets is now used for making the base for sourdough. In this way, Theory U helped the neighbourhood to find the underlying issues, and connect more with each other and with their surroundings.

We ended the Knowledge Session with a typical Theory U approach: an “accompanied writing assignment” with the aim of reflection. In this assignment, Dorien and Maartje asked the participants a set of questions about our work and impact. Think of: “What in your current work gives you most energy?” and “What can we create as a collective in the next 3-5 years? “. This inspiring knowledge session by Hieroo taught us more about how to not immediately jump to conclusions and using a quick fix. We learned how to really take a step back and get to the root of the problem with specific tools to achieve that.

Do you want to learn more about Theory U or get in contact with Hieroo? Leave a comment below and I will bring you in contact with Maartje and Dorien!

Professionals in the field of circularity and sustainability may experience "eco-emotions," a spectrum of feelings which can have both negative and positive effects on mental health. Eco-emotions arise from ecological crises, such as climate change, and can lead to stress, fatigue, and a sense of powerlessness, but also heightened motivation for professionals.

This work session, led by Marian Zandbergen (CIRCOLLAB, HvA) and moderated by Mareille de Bloois (Royal HaskoningDHV) on the 14th of December, explored the challenges and opportunities associated with eco-emotions, both personally and within organizations. The key question addressed was: How can individuals and organisations constructively manage eco-emotions, and what implications does this have for organisations?

Defining eco-emotions

Eco-emotions are feelings resulting from ecological crises, which can be categorized into backward-looking and forward-looking emotions.

• Backward-looking eco-emotions: include eco-guilt, eco-grief, and eco-anger about past events, such as feeling guilty about the carbon footprint of a vacation flight.
• Forward-looking eco-emotions: encompass eco-anxiety, and focus on current and anticipated future decisions. While eco-anxiety can drive proactive engagement with ecological issues, excessive amounts may lead to feelings of helplessness.

Negative eco-emotions can thus harm your mental health and can even lead to burnout. Therefore, it is important to use strategies to counter the negative effects of eco-anxiety.

Changing attitudes - taking action
Attitudes shape behaviour, and self-efficacy—the belief in one's ability to contribute to problem-solving—is crucial. Concrete action perspectives empower individuals, fostering a sense of control over problems and mitigating feelings of helplessness of eco-anxiety.

Social support - acting as a group
Collaborative efforts within a group can positively impact perceived self-efficacy. Strong collaboration can turn negative effects of eco-anxiety into positive outcomes. Trust and shared motivation play vital roles in effective collaborations, fostering understanding across personal and organisational perspectives.

In the group - recognition and solutions

The participants of the workshop shared personal experiences of eco-emotions and brainstormed constructive ways to incorporate these emotions into circular transition collaborations. Ideas included conducting organizational research to understand the extent of eco-emotions and gain insight into personal motivations in businesses and collaboration, and demonstrating how intrinsic beliefs contribute to shared goals.

Proposed solutions
To address eco-emotions within organizations, various methods were proposed, including workshops with inspiration and practical applications, an HR framework, 'meet & share' sessions featuring talks with industry leaders, and personal purpose hours.

Marian expressed a desire to continue researching this topic, inviting contributions through qualitative interviews within organizations. Are you interested in contributing to this research, please let me know in the comments, or email me at noor@amsterdamsmartcity.com.

In Today’s Changemakers, we talk with pioneers in our network who are all, in their own way, shaping the city and region of the future. Our second guest on this series is Marieke van Doorninck, director of Kennisland and activist for a just and sustainable world.

Her commitment to societal issues began early in her career when she contributed to shaping prostitution policies aimed at lifting the brothel ban. During this process, she noticed that there was too little consultation with sex workers themselves, and realized that inclusion is essential for social change. With these ideas she started her political career with GroenLinks. During that time, she also worked for an NGO dedicated to fighting human trafficking and exploitation. It was in this role that she came to recognize the inherently exploitative nature of the system we live in. Occupations, where human exploitation is common, happen to be the very ones sustaining our comfortable lifestyles, which involves the mass production of cheap food and supplies. The urge to create a just and sustainable world, motivated her to work fiercely for system change. As Amsterdam's Deputy Mayor Spatial Planning and Sustainability she was committed, among other things, to introducing the Doughnut Economy principles, and since the beginning of 2023, Marieke has been working as director at Kennisland, one of Amsterdam Smart City’s societal partners.

System Change in Politics

Marieke became involved in politics as an activist, however, decision making in politics didn't always happen as quickly or dramatically as she would have preferred. “What I found challenging when working for the Municipality of Amsterdam was that, despite my belief that the proposals we had were beneficial for the people, it was very difficult to discuss them with the residents of Amsterdam. This highlights the significance of the gap between the “system” world and the “real” world. People are preoccupied with other things or might even have better ideas themselves, because they are more directly in touch with the issue. We underutilize the energy and strength that exists there and therefore we still tend to make too many plans for the people and not enough plans with the people”.

“We should focus more on co-creation than mere participation. I believe there's a misconception that not involving people saves time, I think we are coming to realize that not involving people actually leads to a significant loss of time. Therefore, my guiding principle is to provide direction and space, to clearly state what you believe in but don't prescribe exactly how it should happen, and invite everyone to join in and have a say."

Inclusivity and Kennisland

Marieke saw how the system world of the government does not always align with the real world in the daily life of residents, which creates resistance to much-needed change. “... that is why Kennisland became a very interesting place to work for me, because Kennisland's fundamental approach is to always work with the people it concerns. This ensures that their ideas become part of the solutions and their dilemmas are recognized as important problems. That's something I'm passionate about”.

“How can we take steps towards a new living environment? How can we challenge the existing power structures? How can we question established interests? But more importantly, how can we support the plans and ideas from people who are already demonstrating that a different world is possible? This is something Kennisland is good at, engaging in conversations using various methods that demonstrate how everyone can be heard, how inclusivity can be achieved, and how solutions can be created together”.

Marieke then mentions two projects at Kennisland: the Smartphone-Free School and the ‘Buurtgenoten’ game. "The implementation of the Smartphone-Free School originated from a request of the principal who had decided to make his school smartphone-free, but wanted to develop the policy around it with all stakeholders. We then started a conversation with the school, talking to the parents, the students and the teachers about what a smartphone-free school should look like according to them. What are their concerns and how can those concerns be addressed? By involving the school we co-created towards a Smartphone-Free School. As another example, we developed the 'Buurtgenoten' game, which helps identify what a neighborhood needs by initiating conversations about what the community can and cannot do on its own. When you ask something of the neighborhood, you shouldn't just inquire, 'Will you do this?' You should also ask, 'What do you need to fulfill that role?”.

Amsterdam Smart City: Addressing more societal issues and a service-oriented role.

Throughout her career, Marieke has gained valuable insights on bringing about change, which she is willing to share with Amsterdam Smart City: "What Amsterdam Smart City could certainly do well is examine what is happening in society and how you can be supportive or service-oriented in response. How can all the knowledge, expertise, and intellectual power within the Amsterdam Smart City network be utilized for the benefit of those trying to make a difference in their own living environment? I believe that Amsterdam Smart City has everything it takes to fulfill and assume that role. The emphasis could move slightly away from the partner's point of view and towards the larger interests of society. Because, if you truly want to make a difference for the city, there are things that must be done entirely based on the importance of the problem you are seeking to address. For example, I work for Kennisland not necessarily because it serves my own interests but because I believe it is for a good cause, and I have something valuable to contribute".

Dream Scenario for the Amsterdam Region: Solidarity

Due to Marieke's involvement within the city of Amsterdam, it's especially valuable to know what her dream scenario would be for the Amsterdam Region. According to her, the region should “... learn to collaborate through cooperation instead of competition. Work in solidarity with each other, both within the region and globally. It would be wonderful to adopt a sort of international solidarity position, meaning that we, as a region, take care of ourselves in a way that also benefits the rest of the world. I believe that such a region forms an ecosystem in itself, creating short chains and focusing on how cities can mutually strengthen each other. One city may have something that can be shared with another city, encouraging an ongoing exploration of how cities might reinforce each other, the natural environment and the ecological systems. Consequently, financial gains should become less of an individual concern, as we strive for a healthier and improved region that, in turn, contributes positively to the global community or, at the very least, causes no damage. Then we would have already achieved a great deal."

Marieke's advice for our readers: Personal Activism.

When you're in conversation with Marieke, it inspires you to take on a more activistic position in both your personal and work life. So to round off this interview we asked her about some advice for our readers and their personal activism ambitions: "First of all, join activist groups, find out what is happening in your neighborhood or field of interest and see how you can contribute. But also, even in more conventional surroundings, it's about finally saying the things that you feel need to be addressed but never felt comfortable to actually say, out loud. Dare to ask questions and see if there are people who share similar thoughts. This way, it won't be as intimidating to ask such questions. I believe that people's willingness to cause discomfort is becoming increasingly crucial. Without discomfort, nothing will change”.

“Moreover, I also believe it's crucial not to underestimate that if you have a good idea, you can simply start working on it without having it completely figured out. At a certain point, you must also dare to say, ‘I believe we should head in this direction, even though I am not exactly sure how we'll get there’. In the end, activism is about fighting for systemic change. So, I think activism, in all its forms, means making sure the world knows that so many of us think we should move in a different direction".

In 2024, we continue our collaboration with Marieke’s Kennisland as one of Amsterdam’s Smart City’s ‘Societal partners’. Kennisland representatives are part of our so called ‘Wicked Problems Team’ and they help our network strengthen its societal impact. Marieke is also part of a new Post-Growth initiative, initiated by Amsterdam Economic Board, Kennisland and other Marineterrein partners.

This series started off in 2023 with a conversation with Romy Dekker, Senior Researcher at Rathenau Instituut. Read about her story and the use of Digital Technologies in The Energy Transition here.

Image by: Kennisland

Without changing the transport system in which they operate, the advent of autonomous cars will not significantly improve the quality of life in our cities. This has been discussed in previous contributions. This change includes prioritizing investment in developing high-quality public transport and autonomous minibuses to cover the first and last mile.
 
However, this is not enough by itself. The need to reduce the distances we travel daily also applies to transporting raw materials and food around the world. This is the subject of a new series of blog posts, and probably the last.
Over the next few weeks I will be discussing the sustainability of the need for people and goods to travel long distances. In many cities, the corona pandemic has been a boost to this idea. Paris is used as an example. But what applies to Paris applies to every city.
 
When Anne Hidalgo took office as the newly elected mayor in 2016, her first actions were to close the motorway over the Seine quay and build kilometres of cycle paths. Initially, these actions were motivated by environmental concerns. Apparently, there was enough support for these plans to ensure her re-election in 2020. She had understood that measures to limit car traffic would not be enough. That is why she campaigned on the idea of "La Ville du Quart d'Heure", the 15-minute city, also known as the "complete neighbourhood". In essence, the idea is to provide citizens with almost all of their daily needs - employment, housing, amenities, schools, care and recreation - within a 15-minute walk or bike ride of their homes. The idea appealed. The idea of keeping people in their cars was replaced by the more sympathetic, empirical idea of making them redundant.
 
During pandemics, lockdowns prevent people from leaving their homes or travelling more than one kilometer. For the daily journey to work or school, the tele-works took their place, and the number of (temporary) "pistes á cycler" quickly increased. For many Parisians, the rediscovery of their own neighbourhood was a revelation. They looked up to the parks every day, the neighbourhood shops had more customers, commuters suddenly had much more time and, despite all the worries, the pandemic was in a revival of "village" coziness.
 
A revival, indeed, because until the 1960s, most of the inhabitants of the countries of Europe, the United States, Canada and Australia did not know that everything they needed on a daily basis was available within walking or cycling distance. It was against this backdrop that the idea of the 15-minute city gained ground in Paris.
 
We talk about a 15-minute city when neighbourhoods have the following characteristics
- a mix of housing for people of different ages and backgrounds - pedestrians and cyclists
- Pedestrians and cyclists, especially children, can safely use car-free streets.
- Shops within walking distance (up to 400 meters) for all daily needs
- The same goes for a medical center and a primary school.
- There are excellent public transport links;
- Parking is available on the outskirts of the neighbourhood.
- Several businesses and workshops are located in each neighbourhood.
- Neighbourhoods offer different types of meeting places, from parks to cafes and restaurants.
- There are many green and leafy streets in a neighbourhood.
- The population is large enough to support these facilities.
- Citizens have a degree of self-management.
 
Urban planners have rarely lost sight of these ideas. In many cities, the pandemic has made these vague memories accessible goals, even if they are far from reality.
 
In the next post, I will reflect on how the idea of the 15-minute city is moving from dream to reality.

Below you can link to my free downloadable e-book: 25 Building blocks to create better streets, neighborhoods and cities

Grid congestion is becoming increasingly significant and will start to pose a problem in the low-voltage network in the coming years. This will prevent homeowners from transitioning away from gas, result in low efficiency for their solar panels, and could make it impossible to have a charging station at their doorstep. Alliander does not want to hinder the energy transition. Therefore, they are looking for a way to involve homeowners in the issue of grid congestion and provide solutions that are still feasible with a crowded grid.

In the energy work session on the 14th of December, Wouter van Rooijen (Alliander) discussed the challenges related to grid congestion. From 2030 onwards, it is expected that a significant portion of the low-voltage network will experience both over- and under-voltage. While the network will be reinforced as quickly as possible, the lack of labour capacity is also prompting the consideration of alternative solutions.

The solution that emerged from Wouter's co-creation process was WijkWise. In this work session, Wouter aimed to validate the WijkWise concept and find parties that could contribute to its development and market implementation. Dave van Loon from Kennisland moderated the session.

WijkWise – Understanding the neighbourhood's grid situation

The WijkWise concept focuses on three problems:

• The growth of grid congestion at low-voltage
• Homeowners' uncertainty about making sustainable investments. For instance, because they may not know if their solar panels will yield a good return.
• Homeowners' lack of awareness regarding the impact their choices have on the stability of the grid.

The proposed solution:
"With WijkWise, Alliander continues to facilitate homeowners in making their homes more sustainable. Alliander does this by providing insight into the neighbourhood's grid situation and recommending the best investment. Residents can make informed choices that contribute to payback time, comfort, and certainty. A good choice benefits both the homeowner and the grid operator."

The idea is to provide more insight into the neighbourhood's grid situation and offer tailored advice for home sustainability. This way, homeowners can determine whether they should invest in insulation, a heat pump, or solar panels.

Alliander does not want to develop this concept alone, but is seeking partners to bring this concept to market.

Discussion

After the concept presentation, a brief discussion followed. The main questions raised were:

• Can providing insight into the neighbourhood's grid situation have (negative) effects on the housing market?
  → They don't know yet; further investigation is needed.
• Can this data be shared freely?
  → The data shared will be at the neighbourhood level (transformer level) and not in real-time (monthly). If there is user data involved, consent must be obtained.
• What behaviour change do you expect?
  → That, during the investment moment, consideration will be given to the grid situation for the most advantageous investment.

After the discussion, we worked in groups with the Empathy Canvas from Kennisland to view the WijkWise concept from the perspective of the homeowners. This tool helped us really view the problems from the perspective of a homeowner.

Empathy Mapping

In three groups, we delved into the homeowner's situation. The recurring themes in the empathy maps were:

• A sense of unfairness for the homeowner. They invest in sustainability and are rewarded with grid congestion problems.
• A feeling of uncertainty for the homeowner. They want assurance that their investment will yield results.
• Little trust in the grid operator and the government. First, everyone had to get solar panels, and now suddenly it doesn't fit, and net metering is being discontinued (or not?)
• Limited understanding by homeowners because they find it very complicated and don't want to delve into it. It's not an urgent problem for them.
• Collaboratively seeking solutions can be very positive, but can also lead to friction.

Alliander plans to take the next steps with this concept in 2024. In 2024, they are planning to do the follow-up research, make the minimal viable product, and launch the first version of the product at the end of the year.

Do you know of any stakeholders that absolutely need to be involved, or would you like to be involved in the implementation of the WijkWise concept? Please contact Noor at noor@amsterdamsmartcity.com. Special thanks to Wouter and Dave for this interesting session.

Until recently, optimists would say "in a few years." Nobody believes that anymore, except for Egon Musk. The number of - so far small - incidents involving robot taxis is increasing to such an extent that the cities where these taxis operate on a modest scale, San Francisco in particular, want to take action.

Europe vs USA

In any case, it will take a long time before robotaxis are commonplace in Europe. There are two major differences between the US and Europe when it comes to transportation policy.
In the US, each state can individually determine when autonomous vehicles can hit the road. In Europe, on the other hand, a General Safety Regulation has been in force since June 2022 that applies to all countries. This states, among other things, that a driver must maintain control of the vehicle at all times. Strict conditions apply to vehicles without a driver: separate lanes, short routes on traffic-calmed parts of the public road and always with a 'safety driver' on board.
The second difference is that in the US 45% of all residents do not have public transport available. In Europe you can get almost anywhere by public transport, although the frequency is low in remote areas. Governments say they want to further increase accessibility by public transport, even if this is at the expense of car traffic. To this end, they want an integrated transport policy, a word that is virtually unknown in the US.

Integrated transport policy

In essence, integrated transport policy is the offering of a series of transport options that together result in (1) the most efficient, safe and convenient satisfaction of transport needs, (2) reduction of the need to travel over long distances (including via the '15- minutes city') and (3)  minimal adverse effects on the environment and the quality of life, especially in the large cities. In other words, transport is part of policy aimed at improving the quality of the living environment.
Integrated transport policy assesses the role of vehicle automation in terms of their contribution to these objectives. A distinction can be made between the automation of passenger cars (SAE level 1-3) and driverless vehicles (SEA level 4-5).

Automation of passenger cars

Systems such as automatic lane changes, monitoring distance and speed, and monitoring the behavior of other road users are seen as contributing to road safety. However, the driver always remains responsible and must therefore be able to take over steering at any time, even if the car does not emit a (disengagement) signal. Eyes on the road and hands on the wheel.

Driverless cars

'Hail-riding' will result in growth of traffic in cities because the number of car kilometers per user increases significantly, at the expense of walking, cycling, public transport and to a much lesser extent the use of private cars. Sofar, the number of people who switch from their own car to 'hail-riding' is minimal. The only way to reverse this trend is to impose heavy taxes on car kilometers in urban areas. On the other hand, the use of robot shuttles is beneficial in low-traffic areas and on routes from residential areas to a station. Shuttles are also an excellent way to reduce car use locally. For example, in the extensive Terhills resort in Genk, Belgium, where people leave their cars in the parking lot and transfer to autonomous shuttles that connect the various destinations on the site with high frequency.
 
A few months ago (April 2023), I read that Qbus in the Netherlands wants to experiment with 18-meter-long autonomous buses, for the time being accompanied by a 'safety driver'. Routes on bus lanes outside the busiest parts of the city are being considered. Autonomous metros and trains have been running in various cities, including London, for years. It is this incremental approach that we will need in the coming years instead of dreaming about getting into an autonomous car, where a made bed awaits us and we wakes us rested 1000 kilometers away. Instead of overcrowded roads with moving beds, we are better off with a comfortable and well-functioning European network of fast (sleeper) trains on a more modern rail infrastructure and efficient and convenient pre- and post-transport.

Dear Amsterdam Smart City Managers and Members,

As a member of your digital platform, I would like to sincerely thank you for the insightful emails and contents you provide to members like myself throughout the year.

I am delighted to share with you my latest published article, "Guidelines for a participatory Smart City model to address Amazon’s urban environmental problems," featured in the December 12, 2023 issue of PeerJ Computer Science.
The article can be fully accessed and cited at:
da Silva JG. 2023. Guidelines for a participatory Smart City model to address Amazon’s urban environmental problems. PeerJ Computer Science 9:e1694 https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.1694

I welcome you to read my publication and share it with fellow members who may find the digital solutions for the Amazon region useful. Please let me know if you have any feedback or ideas to advance this work.

Sincerely (敬具)
Prof. Jonas Gomes ( 博士ジョナス・ゴメス)
www.jgsilva.org
UFAM/FT Industrial Engineering Department (Manaus-Amazon-Brazil)
The University of Manchester/MIOIR/SCI/AMBS Research Visitor 2020/2023

Following the Data Dilemmas event in October, which focused on underground infrastructure, this deep dive session delved further into the question: How can we look under the ground without digging? The session began with an introduction by Alliander, followed by additional insights from Port of Amsterdam, Eurofiber, City of Amsterdam, and Stedin. After exploring the issue, various parties pitched their solutions.

The problem of Alliander

Alliander is anticipating a significant workload in the next 2-10 years, requiring a lot of resources (personnel, materials, and services). We are transitioning away from gas, which means that many gas connections have to be removed. Currently, Alliander is removing around 12,000 connections per year, this is expected to increase to around 100,000 in 2030.

The primary challenge in the removal process is locating the gas line. Due to missing or outdated drawings, ground subsidence, or discrepancies between installation and location, they are often difficult to locate. This leads to time-consuming and costly excavation and often excavation damage.

Alliander employs several search methods to locate the gas lines:

• Probe: This is a probe that can be entered via the main gas valve, with a transmitter so that you can trace it from the outside.
• Gas camera:  Attached to the probe to see where the gas connections are.
• Ground penetrating radar (GPR): Sonar scan of the ground.
• Chenny: Similar to probe.
• Frequency on metal tubes: For metal pipes, you can set a frequency on the pipe that can be detected.
• Ultra-sonic: By putting a sound signal on the pipe you can register the vibrating gas molecules with a microphone.

These techniques are not always sufficient and come with many drawbacks. This is why Alliander is seeking a better way for technicians to know where to dig without opening the ground.

Additional Insights

Additional insights from various stakeholders highlight common challenges related to underground infrastructure. The main problem is that the data of the underground is not the same as the real-time situation. This leads to scanning methods being necessary in the first place.
The data which is documented is also lacking because it doesn’t show things such as ground pollution, and the z-coordinate (depth) is also missing. There is potential for improvement since most parties have better databases of their own assets. This data is unfortunately not shared since it is not required by KLIC (Information and Coordination Center for Underground Infrastructure).

Solution Pitches

1. SpectroAG – Hamed Mehdipoor: Combines GPR, electromagnetic wave emission, robots, and drones to scan large ground areas in high resolution. The data is analyzed by an AI Brain Cloud, providing a 3D representation of asset locations. Challenges may arise in areas with clay ground, since this is always a problem with GPR.

2. Inframent – Marina Kurnevich: A startup addressing asset registration issues. Their solution involves taking photos of open trenches with a smartphone or tablet, instantly uploading them to their application, and adding location data. This ensures immediate and accurate registration of underground data.

3. Infratags – Henk Schwietert (Evalan): Their passive (no battery) RFID tags (Infratags) can be attached to cables and connection sleeves, allowing easy identification above ground using a scanner. The low-cost tags, around 50 cents each, can easily help find tagged assets. However, challenges include conflicting interests and delayed returns on investment. The Infratag was developed in collaboration with Tallo.

4. HvA Sensorlab - Marcel van der Horst: While not offering a direct solution, HvA Sensorlab has students capable of working on the problem. They have access to advanced equipment for developing or improving solutions.

5. VLabs – Diemer Cohen Stuart: Uses GIS data and Augmented Reality (AR) to visualize accurate geodata through AR glasses. This simplifies operational work, improves quality control, and allows for on-site guidance with work instructions. The glasses provide 5-10 cm accuracy, with a cost of 8500 euros per pair.

Are you interested in any of these solutions, would you like more information, or do you have an even better solution? Please don’t hesitate to reach out to Noor – noor@amsterdamsmartcity.com, or leave a comment below. We will continue with this topic in 2024!

‘Digital transformation requires a governmental transformation’. Deze boodschap resoneerde op het recente Gartner IT-congres in Barcelona. Waarin zit die digitale transformatie? In de definitieve doorbraak van Artificial Intelligence (AI). Elke overheidsorganisatie moet ermee aan de slag, AI is niet langer ‘iets van Europa’. In dit artikel negen tips.

Op 2 november 2023 werd Max Welling, een autoriteit op het terrein van kunstmatige intelligentie, geïnterviewd in het FD. De kop van het artikel loog er niet om: ‘AI streeft mens voorbij qua intelligentie’. Een dag later luidde het hoofdredactioneel commentaar van NRC: ‘Omgang met AI zal toekomst extreem beïnvloeden.’ Om drie dagen later in NRC te lezen dat één van de prominentste AI-experts ter wereld, Stuart Russell, overheden nog twaalf maanden geeft. Als zij zich dan niet gewapend hebben tegen AI, dan dreigt het totale verlies aan controle over onze financiële systemen.

De hype voorbij

De moraal van deze artikelen? We zijn de hype voorbij. Of we nu willen of niet, AI is here to stay. We voelen inmiddels aan den lijve dat AI een, zoals de WRR het noemde, ‘systeemtechnologie’ is. Een technologie die maar eens in de honderd jaar voorkomt en dan de hele wereld op zijn kop zet. En juist deze gedachte verlamt. Oók overheden. Daarin schuilt een groot risico.

AI is groot en ongrijpbaar. En is daarmee voor veel overheden een ver-van-mijn-bed-show. Zij vragen zich af: wat nu? Desinformatie, deep-fakes, vergroting van de ongelijkheid, de grip op de grote tech-bedrijven, het vervalsen van de verkiezingen, het namaken van stemmen: dat is toch allemaal iets voor Europa? Jazeker, gelukkig hebben we de Europese Commissie met haar AI-Act. En gelukkig zijn sommige handhavingsorganisaties zoals de politie, een aantal grote gemeenten, de waterschappen en een handjevol provincies ook actief. Maar de overgrote meerderheid van overheidsorganisaties staat erbij en kijkt ernaar. Deze groep kent een collectieve handelingsverlegenheid. Deze moet omgezet worden in een positieve houding.

Negen tips

Daarom hierbij negen tips. Niet om een filosofische discussie te starten over de toekomst van de mensheid. Maar gewoon praktisch. Voor overheidsorganisaties die zich het hoofd buigen over de vraag wat ze met AI ‘moeten’. Of die zich dat hoofd niet buigen, maar gewoon wakker geschud moeten worden.

TIP 1: ZORG DAT UW VERDEDIGING OP ORDE IS
Misschien overbodig maar toch: zorg dat uw beveiliging op orde is. Bedenk daarbij dat technologieën zelden alléén komen. We hebben het over AI, maar op dit moment klopt ook de kwantumtechnologie al aan de poort. Naar verwachting zijn kwantumcomputers over vijf tot tien jaar in voldoende mate beschikbaar. Zij zorgen voor een ongekende vergroting van de rekenkracht. En zijn dan in staat tot het kraken van veel encryptietechnologie die nu beschikbaar is.

TIP 2: VERMIJD HET ‘TECHNOLOGIE ZOEKT PROBLEEM’-SYNDROOM
Moet u nu in één keer voor 100 procent op AI overstappen? Door voor al uw maatschappelijke opgaven alle heil in AI te zoeken? Nee, dat moet u vooral niet doen. Daar zijn twee redenen voor. In de eerste plaats omdat niet alle overheidsorganisaties daarvoor de noodzakelijke datapositie innemen. Voor toepassing van AI moet je over grote hoeveelheden data beschikken die ook nog eens van voldoende kwaliteit is. Maar zelfs als u wel aan die voorwaarde zou voldoen, dan nog zou zo’n 100 procent draai niet wenselijk zijn. U moet vooral die datatechnologieën inzetten die uw maatschappelijke opgaven verder brengen. Dat kunnen in voorkomende gevallen ook klassieke monitoringstechnieken zijn. Beetje saai misschien, maar vele malen verstandiger dan dat u krampachtig op zoek gaat naar een probleem dat zich leent voor AI. Blijf dus redeneren vanuit de opgaven, niet vanuit de technologie.

TIP 3: JE KUNT ALLÉÉN VERANDEREN IN EN MET JE OMGEVING
Maar als u dan toch met AI aan de slag gaat: houd dan vooral uw externe omgeving in de gaten. Deze verandert namelijk óók onder invloed van AI. En u heeft die omgeving nodig! Waarom? Omdat u alléén kunt veranderen in en met de context. Een context-loze veranderstrategie bestaat niet. De veranderingen die AI in gang zet, zijn zogezegd eco-systemisch. Welke impact heeft AI op bijvoorbeeld de energietransitie, de mobiliteit en de landbouw? En wat betekent dat voor de rol en werkwijze van overheden? Veel van die veranderingen zijn nu nog nauwelijks voor te stellen. Een scenario-aanpak met veel ruimte voor verbeelding, in koepel- dan wel interbestuurlijk verband, ligt hier voor de hand.

TIP 4: DENK NA OVER DE GEVOLGEN VAN AI VOOR DE WERKGELEGENHEID DIE U TE BIEDEN HEEFT
Er wordt al vele decennia gespeculeerd over de impact van technologie op de werkgelegenheid. Staat ons een toekomst te wachten waarin we ons allemaal vervelen? Russell sluit dat scenario niet uit. ‘Uiteindelijk kan, verwacht ik, AI alles wat wij mensen nu kunnen.’ Dit zwarte scenario ontslaat overheden niet van de verantwoordelijkheid om nu in actie te komen. Door vanuit haar rol als goed werkgever de consequenties voor diezelfde werkgelegenheid te doordenken. Deze exercitie hebben we tot dusver altijd voor ons uit geschoven. Dat kan nu niet langer. Bij wijze van vingeroefening kan de suggestie van Brynjollfson, geopperd tijdens het genoemde Gartner Congres, opgepakt worden. Splits alle functies uit naar taken. En bekijk per taak waar AI waarde kan toevoegen. Dat geeft een eerste beeld van de taken die zullen verdwijnen. Misschien valt een groot verlies aan overheidsbanen op enig moment niet te voorkomen. Maar het zou een bloody shame zijn als overheden zo’n verlies zou ‘overkomen’.

TIP 5: GA UW MEDEWERKERS OM-, HER- EN BIJSCHOLEN
Nadat u zich dat eerste beeld van de werkgelegenheidsconsequenties heeft gevormd, ligt meteen een nieuwe opdracht op tafel. Dat is de noodzaak om uw mensen te gaan om-, her- en bijscholen. Dat is natuurlijk razend ingewikkeld. Want welke functies hebben straks nog toegevoegde waarde als AI uiteindelijk alle werk kan overnemen? Wie moet dan nog waarvoor worden omgeschoold? Maar zo ver is het nog niet, als dit scenario überhaupt al ooit bewaarheid wordt. Dat neemt niet weg dat banenverlies dreigt voor zowel de administratieve als adviserende functies. Voor de administratieve functies is dat niet zo’n verrassing. Er wordt al langer rekening mee gehouden dat die op enig moment verdwijnen. Maar de snelle opkomst van de taalmodellen heeft nu ook de beleidswereld wakker geschud. Zijn beleidsadviseurs nog wel zeker van hun baan als je ziet wat ChatGPT nu al vermag? Wat kunnen de taalmodellen over vijf jaar wel niet allemaal? Dezelfde Brynjolffson had daar wel ideeën over. Het gebruik van taalmodellen vereist dat we nieuwe vragen leren stellen. En ons op die manier op een intelligente manier tot de computer verhouden. Met andere woorden: beleidsmedewerkers moeten worden geprikkeld om niet slaafs te volgen wat de computer uitspuugt.

TIP 6: EXPERIMENTEER
De afgelopen maanden heeft menigeen al geëxperimenteerd met ChatGPT. De koudwatervrees lijkt kleiner dan verwacht, de nodige ambtenaren doen er al ervaring mee op. Overheden doen er goed aan om deze experimenten vrijmoedig te stimuleren. Zoals de provincie Noord-Brabant doet met Sammie: een digitale assistent die medewerkers ondersteunt bij het stikstofvraagstuk. Sammie wordt getraind op de eigen stikstofdata. En Sammie vermeldt ook welke regels en data aan zijn antwoorden ten grondslag liggen.

TIP 7: STEL ETHISCHE KADERS VAST
Het gebruik van AI heeft ook keerzijden. Zo heeft de Interprovinciale Ethische Commissie onlangs een uitstekend advies uitgebracht uitgebracht over het gebruik van ChatGPT. Daarbij wees de commissie bijvoorbeeld op het belang van duurzaamheid. AI slurpt grote hoeveelheden energie. Vroeg of laat zal elke organisatie moeten aangeven waar voor haar de grenzen liggen. Dat type afwegingen kan niet aan individuele medewerkers overgelaten worden. Experimenteren is dus mooi, maar moet op enig moment stollen in ethische kaders. Het is aan besturen om deze vast te stellen.

TIP 8: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MOET AAN TAFEL IN HET KABINET, COLLEGES EN DIRECTIES
‘Ik kan me voorstellen dat AI een zetel krijgt in de raad van bestuur van bedrijven. Om vragen aan te stellen, om advies van te krijgen.’ Een suggestie van Max Welling. Deze suggestie is uiteraard niet voorbehouden aan het bedrijfsleven. Waarom kan AI geen zetel krijgen in de ministerraad? En bij colleges, besturen en directies van waterschappen, gemeenten en provincies? De secretaris van deze organen kan ervoor zorgen dat de computer bij elk punt van de agenda advies geeft. Wat een symboliek zou hiervan uitgaan!

TIP 9: WEEG AF OF U WEL DE AI-APPLICATIES VAN EEN GROTE AANBIEDER WILT
Ook als u zelf geen datascientists in dienst heeft die actief met AI aan de slag gaan, komt AI bij elke overheidsorganisatie binnen. Via de veelheid aan tools en applicaties. Zo heeft Microsoft aangegeven dat al haar toekomstige diensten op AI gebaseerd zullen zijn. Te beginnen over een paar jaar met Copilot. Een softwareprogramma dat lange mails kan samenvatten. En desgewenst het antwoord op een binnenkomende mail kan dichten. Bedenk dat u de software van de grote tech-bedrijven niet hoeft te gebruiken. Weeg dat af! Als u de afhankelijkheid van grote aanbieders wilt verminderen, dan kunt u zich oriënteren op alternatieven. Zoals die van de Public Spaces en de Pub Hubs van José van Dijck. Of de op open source gerichte benaderingen.

Tot slot: Transformeer tot in de wortel!

Weleens van het Latijnse woord radix gehoord? Radix betekent wortel. Radicaal is daarvan afgeleid en staat voor ‘tot in de wortel’. Overheden moeten zich openstellen voor een radicaal veranderingsproces. Een transitie zogezegd. Waarom? Omdat de omgeving van overheden inmiddels al vergaand digitaal getransformeerd is. De legitimatie, het bestaansrecht van overheden blijft alléén overeind als zij zelf de vorm van die omgeving aannemen. Dat wil zeggen: als zij zelf ook transformeren. We moeten af van het frame dat we ons verhouden tot AI of, beter, dat we AI adopteren. Neen, we zullen bij het herontwerp van de overheid uit moeten gaan van de enkelvoudige logica van AI en data. In termen van de Wetenschappelijke Raad voor het Regeringsbeleid (WRR): overheden zullen een op publieke waarden gebaseerde AI-identiteit moeten aannemen. Met een daarbij horende AI-wijsheid. Daarin is de dialoog met de samenleving essentieel. Die wijsheid is de bron voor de maatschappelijke meerwaarde.

*Dit artikel is geschreven door Jan van Ginkel (Concerndirecteur provincie Zuid-Holland) en Paul Strijp (Adviseur provincie Noord-Holland) en gepubliceerd op iBestuur.

Beeld: Shutterstock, AI gegenereerd*

 
The photograph above is misleading. Reading a book instead of watching the road is not allowed in any country, unless the car is parked.
 
For more than a decade, car manufacturers have been working on technology to take over driver's actions. A Lot  of money has been invested in this short period and many optimistic expectations have been raised, but no large-scale implementation of the higher SAE levels resulted so far. Commercial services with robotaxi’s are scarce and still experimental.  

The changing tide

Especially in the period 2015 - 2018, the CEOs of the companies involved cheered about the prospects; soon after, sentiment changed. In November 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik said that the spread of autonomous cars is still decades away and that driving under poor circumstances and in overcrowded cities will always require a human driver. Volkswagen's CEO said fully self-driving cars "may never" hit public roads.
The companies involved are therefore increasingly concerned about the return on the $100 billion invested in the development of car automation until the end of 2021. The end of the development process is not yet in sight. Much has been achieved, but the last 20% of the journey to the fully autonomous car will require the most effort and much more investment. Current technology is difficult to perfect. “Creating self-driving robotaxi is harder than putting a man on the moon,” said Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, after terminating Argo, the joint venture with Volkswagen, after the company had invested $100 million in it.
 
The human brain can assess complex situations on the road much better than any machine. Artificial intelligence is much faster, but its accuracy and adaptability still leave much to be desired. Driverless cars struggle with unpredictability caused by children, pedestrians, cyclists, and other human-driven cars as well as with potholes, detours, worn markings, snow, rain, fog, darkness and so on. This is also the opinion of Gabriel Seiberth, CEO of the German computer company Accenture, and he advises the automotive industry to focus on what is possible. Carlo van de Weijer, director of Artificial Intelligence at TU Eindhoven, agrees: “There will not be a car that completely takes over all our tasks.”
Elon Musk, on the other hand, predicted that by 2020 all Tesla’s will have SEA level 5 thanks to the new Full Self Driving Chip. In 2023 we know that its performance is indeed impressive. Tesla may therefore be the first car to be accredited at SAE level 3. That is not yet SAE level 5. The question is whether Elon Musk minds that much!  

The priorities of the automotive industry

For established automotive companies, the priority is to sell as many cars as possible and not to make a driver redundant. The main objective is therefore to achieve SAE levels 2 and possibly 3. The built-in functions such as automatic lane changing, keeping distance, and passing will contribute to the safe use of cars, if drivers learn to use them properly. Research shows that drivers are willing to pay an average of around $2,500 for these amenities. That is different from the $15,000 that the beta version of Tesla's Full Self Driving system costs.
The automotive industry is in a phase of adjusting expectations, temporizing investments, downsizing involved business units, and looking for partnerships. GM and Honda are collaborating on battery development; BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler are in talks to share R&D efforts for autonomous vehicles; and Ford and VW have stopped developing an autonomous car and are working together on more realistic ambitions.  

Safety issues at SAE level 3

But even with a focus on SAE level 3, the problems do not go away. The biggest safety problem may well lie at this level. Elon Musk has suggested for years that Tesla's autopilot would allow drivers to read a book or watch a movie. All they must do is stay behind the wheel. They must be able to take control of the car if the automatic system indicates that it can no longer handle the situation. Studies in test environments show that in this case the reaction time of drivers is far too long to prevent disaster. An eye on the road and a hand on the wheel is still mandatory everywhere in the world, except in  few paces for cars accredited at SEA level 4 under specified conditions.
The assumption is that the operating system is so accurate that it indicates in time that it considers the situation too complex. But there are still many doubts as to whether these systems themselves are sufficiently capable of properly assessing the situation on the road at all times. Recent research from King's College London showed that pedestrian detection systems are 20% more accurate when dealing with white adults than when dealing with children and 7.5% more accurate when dealing with white people compared to people with dark skin.
In the next post I will go into more detail about the legislation and what the future may bring.

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Participating in a COP28 side event organized by the European Commission, the Amsterdam Region delved into Local Green Deals as instrument for achieving the green transition. The primary goal for the session was to uncover actionable strategies and prerequisites essential for fostering public-private collaboration to realize the sustainability transition. Marja Ruigrok, vice-mayor for the municipality of Haarlemmermeer, represented the Amsterdam Region alongside political and business leaders from Braga (Portugal), Aalborg (Denmark) and Skelleftea (Sweden).
 
Commencing the session, Valentina Superti, DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship, and SMEs at the European Commission, highlighted Europe's ambition to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. This necessitates a transformative shift towards sustainability, digitalization, and resilience, which is why the Commission is introducing critical legislation like the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Critical Raw Materials Act.
 
Ruigrok shared insights from the Amsterdam Metropolitan Region’s efforts in establishing Local Green Deals, emphasizing her role as political ambassador and champion for the Green Deal Bikes initiative. She stressed the importance of cycling, explaining that despite its reputation as a cycling paradise, approximately 20% of young people in the Amsterdam Region can not ride a bike: “If you don’t learn to ride a bike at a young age, you are also much less likely to use a bike for commuting later in life. That’s why in this Green Deal, we stimulate young people to learn to ride bikes, and encourage employers to support commuting by bike. This is crucial because employees who bike take on average 2.5 fewer sick days compared to those who don’t bike.”
 
Reflecting on success factors, Ruigrok emphasized the need for political commitment, and clear project ownership: "From a political point of view, you need long term commitment, and you have to create ownership. Someone has to take ownership and say ‘this is my project.’ This might be a governmental agency, a company, a knowledge institution, or civil society organisation - but someone has to take the lead. Otherwise, you will continue to talk, and nothing will happen."
 
Throughout the session, participants provided practical insights and recommendations for fostering successful public-private collaborations in general, and Local Green Deals in specific:

• Lasse Frimand Jensen, mayor of the City of Aalborg, emphasized the necessity of accountability mechanisms: “Mutual commitment is necessary and there must be mechanisms in place to keep each other accountable.”
• Ricardo Rio, mayor of City of Braga and Member of the European Committee of the Regions, highlighted the role of local authorities in mobilizing capacity and engaging stakeholders: “Local authorities need to have the spirit to engage stakeholders and shape partnerships. We  also need governance models that tranced political cycles, and that allow people to participate and hold us accountable.”
• Jens Broberg, representing the business sector, emphasized the urgent need for appropriate incentives: “Governments must use policy frameworks to incentivize and regulate businesses and industry towards a green economy.”
• Evelina Fahlesson, vice-mayor of Skelleftea Municipality emphasized the need for open and honest dialogue: “As a municipality, you have to be open about your challenges and willing to start a dialogue with your citizens and companies. Use procurement and new financing models as tools to implement a shared vision.”
• David Nordberg, from Skanska Sweden, encouraged business leaders to align their business models with sustainability ambitions: "Be brave: try new ways of doing business and work in collaborations. In the long term, there is no conflict between sustainability and the economy."

The session highlighted the pivotal role of collaborative multi-stakeholder partnerships in achieving the green transition, emphasizing sustained political commitment, robust governance structures transcending political timelines, and policy frameworks incentivising sustainable businesses.

In the context of COP28, the true challenge lies in replicating these successful approaches on a wider scale, extending beyond the relatively affluent European context to a global landscape with more limited resources. In many regions, the urgent and acute impacts of climate change are already pervasive, amplifying the need for swift, comprehensive action. This necessitates a global and concerted effort of nations and industries, to surmount the hurdles posed by resource scarcity and varying levels of socio-economic development. This calls for collaboration not only within regions but across continents, fostering knowledge-sharing, technology transfer, and collective efforts in tackling climate challenges. The urgency of the climate crisis demands a united global front, where the lessons learned and successes achieved in Local Green Deals can serve as guiding principles towards a more sustainable and resilient future for all.

Welke concrete stappen kan de overheid op korte termijn zetten om kwetsbare burgers te ondersteunen?

Bestaanszekerheid was een van de cruciale thema's tijdens de verkiezingen en zal dat ook tijdens de formatie zijn. Er zijn veel ideeën over lange termijn oplossingen, maar mensen hebben nu direct hulp nodig. Hoe kan de overheid op korte termijn kwetsbare burgers helpen? Schaal succesvolle projecten snel op, benut fondsen beter en maak gebruik van de kracht en invloed van het bedrijfsleven, adviseren John Schattori, Johan Stuiver en Channa Dijkhuis van Deloitte.

In Nederland leven bijna één miljoen mensen onder de armoedegrens. Ook worstelen steeds meer mensen om financieel het hoofd boven water te houden. Uit recent onderzoek van Deloitte blijkt dat van de 5000 ondervraagde huishoudens slechts de helft zonder problemen alle rekeningen kon voldoen. En bijna één op de vijf huishoudens had afgelopen jaar moeite met het betalen van essentiële levenskosten. Dit illustreert dat zelfs in een van de rijkste landen ter wereld een grote groep mensen in aanzienlijke onzekerheid leeft.
 
Het is dan ook niet verrassend dat 'bestaanszekerheid' een belangrijk thema was in alle verkiezingsprogramma’s. En terecht, want in een wereld van economische onzekerheid en maatschappelijke veranderingen, moeten we mensen beschermen tegen financiële kwetsbaarheid en sociale ontwrichting.
 
De politieke partijen hebben sterk uiteenlopende oplossingen voor het aanpakken van bestaanszekerheid die vooral gericht zijn op de lange termijn. Zo is een stelselwijziging noodzakelijk om gaandeweg te zorgen voor een eerlijk, eenvoudig en rechtvaardig systeem dat bestaanszekerheid voor iedereen biedt. Maar zo’n verandering is complex en tijdrovend, terwijl er nu een groeiende groep burgers is die direct dringend hulp nodig heeft. Over de vraag wat de overheid op de korte termijn al kan doen, vertellen John Schattorie, Partner Centrale Overheid, Johan Stuiver, Director WorldClass bij de Deloitte Impact Foundation en Channa Dijkhuis, Director Public Sector.

Pak de regie en werk samen

Een eerste stap voor de overheid is om in te zetten op projecten die hun succes al hebben bewezen. Veel experimenten en pilots gericht op het verhogen van bestaanszekerheid vinden plaats op gemeentelijk niveau. Maar wanneer zo'n experiment of pilot slaagt, ontbreekt het vaak aan verantwoordelijkheid voor verdere opschaling, constateren Schattorie, Stuiver en Dijkhuis.

Stuiver: “Dat is kapitaalvernietiging, omdat een geslaagd initiatief daardoor op gemeentelijk niveau blijft hangen, net als de kennis en ervaring. In die leemte, waarbij niemand zich eigenaar voelt en verantwoordelijkheid neemt, kan het Rijk vaker de regie pakken om opschaling mogelijk te maken, in samenwerking met de gemeente waar veel kennis zit.”

Schattorie: “We hebben nu eenmaal verschillende bestuurslagen in Nederland, maar daar moet het Rijk zich niet door laten weerhouden. Zij moet juist over deze lagen heen kijken, succesvolle initiatieven selecteren en onderzoeken wat nodig is om ze op te schalen.”

Innovatieve arbeidsmarktconcepten

Neem het innovatieve arbeidsmarktconcept van de basisbaan. Deze is bedoeld voor mensen die al langdurig in de bijstand zitten en moeilijk aan regulier werk kunnen komen. Dankzij het salaris van de basisbaan zijn zij niet langer afhankelijk van een uitkering. Het werk is van maatschappelijke waarde en verhoogt de leefbaarheid in buurten, denk aan onderhouds- en reparatiewerkzaamheden, zorgtaken en toezicht in de wijk.   

Dijkhuis: “Het opschalen van experimenten naar landelijk niveau is primair de verantwoordelijkheid van het Rijk. Zij zijn dan ook aan zet om zelf of in samenwerking met experts de opschaling te realiseren.”  Schattorie: “We zien dat betrokkenen bij de basisbaan er netto direct op vooruitgaan wat leidt tot verlaging van tal van maatschappelijke kosten. Dat verdient landelijke opschaling met steun van het Rijk, gemeenten, het bedrijfsleven en maatschappelijke organisaties.”  
 Stuiver: “De basisbaan is in een aantal gemeenten succesvol, maar heeft nog geen grote navolging gekregen op nationaal niveau. In plaats daarvan ontwikkelen veel gemeenten het concept vaak opnieuw.”  Dijkhuis: “Dat is het bekende psychologische effect van not invented here, waarbij nieuwe ideeën worden genegeerd omdat ze elders bedacht zijn. De overheid moet dit effect actief tegengaan.”

Betrek het bedrijfsleven

Een ander inspirerend voorbeeld van een initiatief dat opschaling naar landelijk niveau verdient is Stichting het Bouwdepot. Dat begon als een project van gemeente Eindhoven waarbij dertig thuisloze jongeren een jaar lang 1050 euro per maand ontvingen.  
 
Dijkhuis: “Het merendeel van de jongeren woonde na dat jaar zelfstandig en meer dan de helft was schuldenvrij. Dit laat zien dat als je mensen vertrouwen geeft en voor rust zorgt, ze bewuste keuzes maken.”  
Stuiver: “Pas als mensen financiële rust hebben kunnen ze de stap zetten om hun bestaanszekerheid te verbeteren, bijvoorbeeld door eindelijk alle post weer te openen, maatschappelijk actief te worden of zich te oriënteren op scholing of werk.” 
 
De vraag is nu hoe je dergelijke projecten slim opschaalt. Schattorie, Stuiver en Dijkhuis zien een belangrijke rol weggelegd voor het bedrijfsleven en maatschappelijke organisaties. Zij dragen immers al structureel bij aan initiatieven om bestaanszekerheid te verbeteren, bijvoorbeeld in onderwijs, financiële gezondheid, schuldhulpverlening en armoedebestrijding.   
 
Dijkhuis: “Feit is dat in publiek-private samenwerkingen (PPS-en) bestaanszekerheidsvraagstukken doorgaans effectiever, sneller en duurzamer kunnen worden opgelost. Niemand - overheid, bedrijfsleven of onderwijs - kan de huidige vraagstukken alleen oplossen. We hebben elkaar nodig, uit de PPS-en komen nieuwe inzichten en innovaties voort.”   
Stuiver: “Vanuit de Impact Foundation werken we bijvoorbeeld samen met onze klanten aan allerlei projecten rond financiële gezondheid voor verschillende doelgroepen, zoals SchuldenLab NL en Think Forward Initiative. Ook werken we met impact ondernemers om ongeziene talenten te helpen die moeite hebben hun plek in de samenleving te vinden.”  
Schattorie: “Het is wel nodig dat het bedrijfsleven gebundeld en voor de lange termijn haar bijdrage levert aan dergelijke programma’s, waar zij samen met de overheid de richting en inrichting van de oplossingen bepaalt. Vanuit een gemeenschappelijk belang, resultaatgericht en in onderling vertrouwen. Onze ambitie is dan ook dat we vaker samen met onze klanten gebundeld impact willen maken.”  Dijkhuis: “Nu zitten we nog te vaak met een ‘duizend bloemen bloeien-strategie’, het zou veel impactvoller zijn als je dat meer in lijn brengt met elkaar.”

Benut fondsen beter

Volgens Schattorie, Stuiver en Dijkhuis is het essentieel om met een meer geïntegreerde blik te kijken naar wat er nodig is om mensen weer op de been te helpen. Ze benadrukken dat het bedrijfsleven zich medeverantwoordelijk voelt en, mits de juiste randvoorwaarden worden gecreëerd, bereid is om meer te doen dan nu het geval is. Met andere woorden: er is genoeg potentie voor experimentele innovatie, capaciteit en budget. Het is de verantwoordelijkheid van de overheid om de regie nemen en deze zaken samen te brengen, waarbij ook fondsen beter benut kunnen worden.  
 
Schattorie: “Het aantal toeslagen, budgetten en fondsen voor het verhogen van de bestaanszekerheid en verminderen van armoede is enorm. Veel van deze budgetten blijven echter ongebruikt, bijvoorbeeld uit vrees voor de mogelijke effecten op andere toeslagen en kortingen.”  
 
Dijkhuis: “Onbekendheid en complexiteit van de beschikbare financiële steun is een belangrijke reden. Daarnaast is er in een aantal grote steden een versnipperd aanbod van honderden maatschappelijke initiatieven die zich per wijk en doelgroep op specifieke thema’s richten.” 

Stuiver: “De communicatie over deze regelingen loopt vaak via kanalen die voor (kwetsbare) burgers moeilijk te vinden zijn. Een oplossing zou zijn om bedragen uit fondsen proactief en automatisch toe te kennen aan diegenen die het nodig hebben. De impact hiervan is direct merkbaar.” 
 
Ondanks de politieke onzekerheden is één ding duidelijk: actie is nu nodig. Zelfs een demissionair kabinet kan initiatief nemen door samenwerking te stimuleren, regie te voeren en de beste initiatieven landelijk uit te rollen, menen Schattorie, Stuiver en Dijkhuis. In onderstaande tabel geven zij een aanzet voor de eerste praktische stappen. Want: bestaanszekerheid mag dan een complex politiek vraagstuk zijn, het is vooral een dringende maatschappelijke behoefte waar elke bestuurder vandaag nog mee aan de slag kan. 

Stappen om succesvolle initiatieven op te schalen

Since mid-2022, Cruise and Waymo have been allowed to offer a ride-hailing service without a safety driver in a quiet part of San Francisco from 11pm to 6am. The permit has now been extended to the entire city throughout the day. The company has 400 cars and Waymo 250. So far, it has not been an unqualified success.  

A turbulent start

In a hilarious incident, an empty taxi was pulled over by police; it stopped properly, but kept going after a few seconds, leaving the officers wondering if they should give chase. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating this incident, as well as several others involving Cruise taxis stalling at intersections, and the Fire Department reports 60 incidents involving autonomous taxis.

Pending further investigation, both companies are only allowed to operate half of their fleet. In addition to the fire department and public transport companies, trade unions are also opposed to the growth of autonomous taxis. California's governor has rejected the objections, fearing that BigTech will swap the state for more car-friendly ones. It is expected that autonomous taxis will gradually enter all major US cities, at a rate just below that of Uber and Lyft.
 
Cruise has already hooked another big fish: In the not-too-distant future, the company will be allowed to operate autonomous taxis in parts of Dubai.
The number of autonomous taxi services in the world can still be counted on one hand. Baidu has been offering ride-hailing services in Wuhan since December 2022, and robot taxis have been operating in parts of Shenzen since then.
Singapore was the first city in the world to have several autonomous taxis operating on a very small scale. These were developed by nuTonomy, an MIT spin-off, but the service is still in an experimental phase. Another company, Mobileye, also plans to start operating in Singapore this year.
The same company announced in 2022 that it would launch a service in Germany in 2023 in partnership with car rental company Sixt 6, but nothing more has been heard. A survey by JD Power found that almost two-thirds of Germans do not trust 'self-driving cars'. But that opinion could change quickly if safety is proven and the benefits become clear.  

What is it like to drive a robotaxi?

Currently, the group of robotaxi users is still small, mainly because the range is limited in space and time. The first customers are early adopters who want to experience the ride.
 
Curious readers: Here you can drive a Tesla equipped with the new beta 1.4 self-driving system, and here you can board a robotaxi in Shenzhen.
 
The robotaxis work by hailing: You use an app to say where you are and where you want to go, and the computer makes sure the nearest taxi picks you up. Meanwhile, you can adjust the temperature in the car and tune in to your favourite radio station.
Inside the car, passengers will find tablets with information about the journey. They remind passengers to close all doors and fasten their seatbelts. Passengers can communicate with remote support staff at the touch of a button. TV cameras allow passengers to watch. Passengers can end the journey at any time by pressing a button. If a passenger forgets to close the door, the vehicle will do it for them.
The price of a ride in a robotaxi is just below the price of a ride with Uber or Lyft. The price level is strongly influenced by the current high purchase price of a robotaxi, which is about $175,000 more than a regular taxi. Research shows that people are willing to give up their own cars if robotaxis are available on demand and the rides cost significantly less than a regular taxi. But then the road is open for a huge increase in car journeys, CO2 emissions and the cannibalisation of public transport, which I previously called the horror scenario.  

Roboshuttles

In some cities, such as Detroit, Austin, Stockholm, Tallinn and Berlin, as well as Amsterdam and Rotterdam, minibuses operate without a driver, but usually with a safety officer on board. They are small vehicles with a maximum speed of 25 km/h, which operate in the traffic lane or on traffic-calmed streets and follow a fixed route. They are usually part of pilot projects exploring the possibilities of this mode of transport as a means of pre- and post-transport.

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In an autonomous car from SAE level 4, perception equipment – the eyes and ears – and software take over human brain functions. This requires accurate maps, laser, radar, lidar and cameras. The lidar, which means 'detect light and range', works in conjunction with the car's cameras. This system pulses laser waves to map the distance to objects day and night, up to up to 100 meters with an accuracy of a few centimeters. The price of all this equipment is between €150,000 and €200,000. The lidar is a high-cost item, although this system is becoming increasingly cheaper due to industrial production. Together, these tools build a four-dimensional image of the environment, and all functions of the moving car are controlled using stored software and communications in the cloud.  

Google/Waymo

Google's X-lab began developing an autonomous car in 2009. In 2016, the company had already completed more than 1.5 million test kilometers and spent $1.1 billion on the development of an autonomous car. The company previously used a self-developed model ('the firefly', see photo). The company then deployed converted Chrysler Pacifica Hybrids, and these will be exchanged for fully electric Jaguar I-Pace cars.
In 2016, Google's parent company Alphabet parlayed autonomous car developments into a new company called Waymo (derived from "a new way of mobility").  

General motorcycles/cruise

Cruise was founded in 2013 with the intention of developing a self-driving car. In 2016, General Moters acquired the company for an amount of $500 million. To date, the company has completed 700,000 test miles in San Francisco's urban environment with no fatalities.

Uber

In 2016, Uber began working with Volvo to develop an autonomous car that could serve as a taxi. The company had acquired software manufacturer Otto for a net $600 million. The company predicted that there will be 75,000 self-driving cars on the road by 2019. That became zero. During the test phase, the company experienced several accidents, including one with a fatal outcome. In addition, Waymo became a target of data theft, a case that was decided in Waymo's favor by the court. Uber therefore had to pay damages of €250 million (in shares). This led to the departure of Uber founder Travis Kalanick. His successor, Dara Khosrowshahi, has put the development of an autonomous car on the back burner. It was recently announced that Uber has signed a contract with Waymo to use this company's autonomous cars in the future.  

Tesla

Until recently, the use of lidar was not possible due to the high costs for car manufacturers that opt for accreditation at SAE level 3. Tesla therefore equipped its cars exclusively with radar, cameras and computer vision. The latter means that all driving Teslas transmit camera images of traffic and the way in which motorists react to 'the cloud'. The company has been developing these images with artificial intelligence for years. It prides itself on the fact that its cars have rules of conduct for every conceivable traffic situation.
The development of the Tesla was accompanied by high expectations but also by many accidents, some of which were fatal. Last year, Tesla made available a beta version of the FSD ("Full Self Driving") software package for a price of $15,000. However, the company had to recall as many as 362,000 cars under the authority of the Traffic Safety Administration because this package was encouraging illegal driving. It looks like that these issues have been resolved and some experts have suggested that Tesla will be able to qualify for accreditation at least at SEA Level 3. This still has to happen.  

Ford and Volkswagen

These companies threw in the towel in 2022 and unplugged Argo, a company that was supposed to develop an autonomous car to provide SAE level 4 taxi services. Instead, both companies announced focusing on the SAE levels 2 and 3, like most auto makers.
 
According to analysts at AlixPartners, the industry has invested $100 billion in developing car automation by 2023, in addition to $250 billion in development of electric cars. I will discus the profitability of these investments later.

De problematiek rondom stikstof is complex en ingrijpend. Ze is diep verweven met uiteenlopende sectoren, belangen en maatschappelijke discussies. Van de veehouderij tot de industrie, van de woningbouw tot de luchtvaart: de opgave die er ligt is enorm — ook voor overheden. Tegen welke dilemma's lopen zij aan? Hoe is de onderlinge rolverdeling? En welke concrete stappen kunnen overheden zetten om zaken weer vlot te trekken? Een dubbelinterview met Deloitte’s Gijsbert Duijzer, Partner Real Estate bij Deloitte, en Mario Kortman, Director Major Programs Public Sector bij Deloitte.

Gijsbert Duijzer kent de stikstofproblematiek op het platteland van binnenuit. Hij heeft in Wageningen gestudeerd en woont op een boerderij in de Gelderse Vallei: nergens in Nederland is de stikstofopgave groter dan daar. In zijn directe omgeving ziet hij veehouders op dit moment worstelen met hun toekomst-perspectief en signaleert hij veel wantrouwen in de (rijks)overheid.

Mario Kortman heeft uitgebreide ervaring in het begeleiden van complexe en politiek gevoelige dossiers voor de rijksoverheid, onder meer voor de ministeries van Economische Zaken, Sociale Zaken en Financiën. Hij is op z'n best als gangmaker van grootschalige transformaties voor beleidsdepartementen en uitvoeringsorganisaties.

Om te beginnen, waar zit de grootste uitdaging?

Kortman: "In de kern draait het om de vraag: hoe kom je tot een gebiedsgerichte aanpak die werkt? Hoe zorg je dat rijk, provincies en gemeenten elkaar gaan vinden in het belang van de regio? En dat al die verschillende lagen van stakeholders ook echt met elkaar gaan samenwerken? Dat organiseren is bij stikstof al extreem ingewikkeld. In die dynamiek spelen ook technische aspecten een rol. Zoals met wat voor model je stikstof meet en of de uitkomst van zo’n model zwart of wit is. Als je daarover een knoop hebt doorgehakt en een fragiele balans hebt gevonden tussen alle belangen, dan moet je dat ook nog toetsen aan de menselijke maat. Met andere woorden: hoe organiseer je na al die afspraken en modellen en regels ook nog ruimte voor individueel maatwerk? Ga er maar aan staan."

Wat wordt er specifiek van de overheid verwacht?

Duijzer: "Uiteindelijk draait het allemaal om twee vragen: 'Wat wordt het beleid?' en 'Hoe gaan we het uitvoeren?'. In dit dossier hebben we het dan concreet over perspectief en duidelijkheid bieden aan de agrariërs. Als overheid zul je boeren op korte termijn helderheid moeten bieden. Alleen dan kunnen zij onderbouwd keuzes maken. En op de lange termijn zijn betrouwbaarheid en voorspelbaarheid cruciaal, maar wees ook transparant als die helderheid nog niet op alle fronten geboden kan worden."

Bij wie zou de regie moeten liggen?

Duijzer: "Rijk, provincies en gemeenten hebben allemaal een cruciale rol. De rijksoverheid zal stabiele kaders moeten bieden voor de lagere overheden, zodat zij die kunnen invullen. Maar wie gaat er formeel over de natuurvergunning? Dat is de provincie. Zij is het bevoegd gezag dat een uitspraak kan doen over het langjarige perspectief van een boerenbedrijf op een specifieke plek. En die provincies komen net uit de verkiezingen, ze hebben zojuist nieuwe gedeputeerden aangesteld. Zij zitten met veel vragen, kijken naar het rijk, naar het RIVM, naar Europa... Dat helpt niet om snel duidelijkheid te kunnen geven. Ten slotte moeten we ook de rol van de gemeenten niet vergeten, zij zijn degenen die de boeren het best kennen en vaak veel vertrouwen genieten."

Hoe staan we er momenteel voor?

Kortman: "Veel problemen in onze tijd komen neer op het anders inrichten van de balans tussen economische activiteiten en onze natuurlijke omgeving. Dat is niet eenvoudig. Hoe bescherm je het milieu en onze voedselproductie? Hoe versnel je de reductie van uitstoot, maar verlies je geen mensen onderweg? Als rijksoverheid ben je daar niet altijd op ingericht. Veel vraagstukken overstijgen individuele beleidsdepartementen, bevatten interne tegenstrijdigheden die ook in de overheid zelf tot uitdrukking komen of missen een natuurlijke regiepartner in de samenleving. En dan heeft het stikstofvraagstuk nog een eigen minister — wat voor veel andere integrale vraagstukken niet geldt."

"Wat heb je in dit dossier aan consultants die nog nooit een koe van achteren hebben gezien?"

Duijzer: "En laten we niet vergeten: de samenleving zit niet altijd te wachten op een regievoerende overheid. Op het platteland wordt toch vooral met achterdocht naar de plannen uit Den Haag gekeken. Ook niet zo gek, want boerengezinnen worden geraakt in hun bestaanszekerheid en maatschappelijk worden er heel andere verwachtingen uitgesproken richting de boeren. Daar komt nog bij dat de huidige regelingen natuurlijk open staan voor agrariërs die willen stoppen — maar er zijn er heel veel die juist dóór willen. En ook zij staan momenteel op pauze. Ze weten niet óf ze door kunnen, hoe dan en waar. En wat hun buren gaan doen... Mensen weten niet waar ze aan toe zijn."

Vraagt dat om een andere rol van de overheid?

Kortman: "Absoluut. Het rijk moet structureel met onzekerheden leren omgaan. Immers, techniek is ambigu, wetenschap geeft geen eenduidige antwoorden, de spagaat tussen collectieve en individuele belangen groeit... In de afgelopen tien jaar is besturen gewoon veel ingewikkelder geworden. En dat zal ook niet eenvoudiger worden. Daar moeten we ons op instellen. Anders communiceren, anders kijken naar het mandaat van uitvoerders, naar de samenwerking tussen departementen. Dit speelt nu op stikstof, maar eigenlijk op veel méér terreinen, alleen al als gevolg van klimaatverandering."

Duijzer: "Tegelijk moeten we wel, overal waar het kan, die complexiteit zien te reduceren. Anders kom je eenvoudigweg niet uit de startblokken. Op een gegeven moment moet je zeggen: op de plekken waar we kúnnen beginnen met een gebiedsgerichte aanpak, gaan we ook starten. Dat vraagt om bestuurlijk lef: starten met de uitvoering terwijl er nog vragen open staan."

Misschien een gekke vraag, maar wat werkt níet?

Kortman: "We maken het onszelf vreselijk lastig als we met z'n allen blijven zoeken naar die silver bullet, naar die technische uitweg. Vastklampen aan technologische oplossingen is niet de oplossing. En als we ons vastleggen in complexe akkoorden waardoor er geen flexibiliteit meer is: dat werkt ook niet. Het leidt af én het heeft veel ongewenste neveneffecten. Want iedereen die net iets buiten de norm valt, belandt buiten de regeling — terwijl er maar een fractie verschil is met de buren. We moeten realistisch zijn en beseffen dat kleine stapjes voorwaarts soms het maximaal haalbare is."

Duijzer: "En wees daar ook eerlijk over. Veel zekerheden uit het verleden zijn er vandaag niet meer. Neem bijvoorbeeld de bank. Die financierde boeren altijd op basis van twee zekerheden, naast het onderpand: de vergunning en goedgekeurde technologie. Beide staan nu ter discussie. En dat zou best wel eens blijvend kunnen zijn. Alles kan veranderen. En dat geldt voor de overheid net zo. Als provincies nu op zoek gaan naar garanties voor boeren over vijftien jaar, dan gaan ze die niet vinden. We moeten niet vergeten: op dit moment staat de veehouderij praktisch stil. Bij de bank komen vrijwel geen nieuwe financieringsaanvragen meer binnen. Je moet als overheid durven zeggen dat je die duidelijkheid wél kunt geven voor de komende jaren en een richting voor de langere termijn, maar geen zekerheid voor de komende decennia."

En wat werkt wél?

Duijzer: "Momenteel maken we als onderdeel van onze opdracht van het ministerie van LNV een rondgang langs provincies, gemeenten, de georganiseerde landbouw en andere betrokken partijen om de huidige situatie in kaart te brengen. Onze inzet is: laat je niet verlammen door complexiteit. Er zijn voldoende punten waar je wel degelijk duidelijkheid kunt geven en waar je nu al concrete stappen kunt zetten. Ook als die boodschap niet leuk is. Er zijn nu eenmaal plekken waarvan je al weet: op deze locatie kan ik een boer wél perspectief bieden — maar op die andere plek is dat perspectief er gewoon niet. Begin op die punten met het verschaffen van duidelijkheid."

"Stel je als overheid kwetsbaar op, je hoeft niet alles te weten, maar je moet wel in beweging komen."

Kortman: "Precies. Begin klein waar het kan. Durf te starten zonder dat alle problemen al helemaal opgelost zijn. Ga een constructieve dialoog aan, met belangengroepen, banken en boeren, maar mobiliseer ook alle lagen van de overheid. Stel je als regievoerder kwetsbaar op, je hoeft niet alles te weten, maar je moet wel in beweging komen."

Tot slot: zijn er nog do's en don'ts die het stikstofvraagstuk meer lucht kunnen geven?

Kortman: "Een dichtgetimmerd landbouwakkoord of een technische eindwaarde die alles oplost? Dat gaat niet de oplossing bieden in dit dossier. De onzekerheid en complexiteit zijn daar eenvoudigweg te groot voor. Alleen door transparant te zijn over onzekerheden kun je de stikstofproblematiek verteerbaar en hanteerbaar maken. En als je ondersteuning zoekt van consultants, eis dan dat zij niet de materie platslaan in een kortetermijnoplossing — maar duurzaam begrip hebben van jouw uitdaging. Dat ze de strategische problemen snappen én dat ze met praktische, haalbare oplossingen komen."

Duijzer: "Bij Deloitte werken we vanuit begrip van de situatie, de problematiek en de context, zowel op inhoud en techniek als op de dynamiek in het stakeholderveld. Mooi voorbeeld in dit verband: we hebben voor het ministerie van LNV en de provincies de zaakbegeleiders geworven om met de boeren in gesprek te gaan, om samen op zoek te gaan naar een werkbare oplossing. We snappen welk profiel daarvoor nodig is en weten de juiste mensen te vinden. Verder voeren wij verkenningen uit bij alle betrokken partijen. Wat is er nodig om boeren perspectief te bieden? En wat is er minimaal vereist om te kunnen starten met een oplossing? We zijn vooral een verbinder die kan helpen om verbeteringen daadwerkelijk te realiseren en in te richten. Maar daarvoor moet je dus wel die brug kunnen slaan. Want wat heb je in dit dossier aan een consultant die nog nooit een koe van achteren heeft gezien?"

De energietransitie is een van de grootste uitdagingen van deze tijd. Nederland heeft tot nu toe goede stappen gezet, maar om de klimaatdoelen te behalen, moet er nog een flinke inhaalslag worden gemaakt. Wat is er nodig en wat is de rol van de overheid in deze transitie? Sander Oudmaijer en Ariën de Klerk, beiden werkzaam bij Monitor Deloitte, doen aanbevelingen gebaseerd op onze onlangs gepubliceerde Energie Transitie Monitor.

We hebben in Nederland de afgelopen decennia goede vooruitgang geboekt, máár om de klimaatdoelen van 2030 en daarna te halen, is er nog een flinke versnelling nodig, constateren Sander Oudmaijer, Director bij Monitor Deloitte, en Ariën de Klerk, Manager bij Monitor Deloitte. Ze baseren zich op de Energie Transitie Monitor (ETM) die Deloitte begin september gepubliceerde. Om de juiste keuzes te kunnen maken, hadden professionals uit de industrie, academici en beleidsmakers al langer behoefte aan een helder beeld en een gemeenschappelijke feitenbasis over de status van de energietransitie. De ETM biedt die huidige stand van zaken over de energietransitie in Nederland en laat zien wat ons te wachten staat. 

Omvang van de Nederlandse emissies

De Klerk: “Tot nu toe hebben we keuzes gemaakt die relatief weinig pijn deden. Het grootste deel van de vooruitgang boekten we door laaghangend fruit te plukken, en mee te liften op ontwikkelingen die zich sowieso al voordeden. Denk aan het terugdringen van de industriële productie, efficiëntiemaatregelen en het feit dat we meer gebruik maken van bestaande technologieën zoals zonne- en windenergie. Om de klimaatdoelen te halen, ontkomen we er niet aan om nu ook keuzes te gaan maken die pijn doen.” 

Oudmaijer: “Om de doelstellingen uit het klimaatakkoord in 2030 te halen, moeten er 570 laadpalen per dag worden geïnstalleerd en moeten er tien emissievrije bussen per week bij komen. Daarbij zouden we de verwarming van 600 huizen per dag moeten elektrificeren en moeten we tot 2050 om de dag één windmolen bouwen. Om dat voor elkaar te krijgen zullen er fundamentele keuzes gemaakt moeten worden.”De Klerk: “De pleisters om kleine tekortkomingen te repareren raken op.”

Vertel het eerlijke verhaal

De rol van de overheid in de energietransitie is dan ook van groot belang, stellen Oudmaijer en De Klerk. De overheid schept de voorwaarden die nodig zijn om de doelen te kunnen behalen, en ze draagt tegelijk bij aan het vertellen van 'het eerlijke verhaal'. Oudmaijer: “Het is belangrijk dat er nu subsidies zijn voor elektrische auto's en allerlei duurzame maatregelen, maar dat houdt een keer op. De energietransitie gaat zowel burgers als bedrijven geld kosten. Dat eerlijke verhaal moet verteld worden.”  

"De vraag is niet of we nog een windmolenpark gaan bouwen op zee óf op land, het moet allebei."

De Klerk: “Bovendien is het nog vaak een of/of-discussie, maar de vraag is niet of we nog een windmolenpark gaan bouwen op zee óf op land, het moet allebei. Daarbovenop zijn investeringen in andere vormen van energievoorziening, zoals bijvoorbeeld kernenergie, noodzakelijk. Ook dat is het eerlijke verhaal: het is en/en.”

Oudmaijer: “De ETM laat duidelijk zien wat er moet gebeuren. Een belangrijke vraag is vervolgens hoe je gemeenschappen meekrijgt met al deze ontwikkelingen. Eigenlijk wil niemand een windmolenpark in zijn achtertuin. Als overheid moet je daarom nadenken hoe je dit zo goed mogelijk kan faciliteren. Wellicht moeten de voordelen van wind- en zonne-energie op een directere manier terugvloeien naar bepaalde gemeenschappen, zodat zij enthousiaster worden en meer betrokken raken. Zoals bij het windpark Veur de Wind, waar omwonenden meeprofiteren van het park, in plaats van dat het ze met dwang werd opgelegd.”

De Klerk: “Al dit soort zaken vragen om een heldere visie vanuit de overheid. Het moet voor investeerders en bedrijven duidelijk zijn wat ze van de overheid kunnen en mogen verwachten en hoe die hen kan helpen. De overheid schept duidelijke randvoorwaarden voor de langere termijn. Als we om de dag een windmolen willen bouwen, dan moet onder meer de termijn om een vergunning te krijgen voor de bouw van een windmolenpark vele malen sneller dan nu het geval is.”

Win-winsituaties

We hebben in korte tijd veel werk te doen. Niettemin zijn volgens Oudmaijer en De Klerk de juiste bouwstenen aanwezig om dit succesvol aan te pakken. Denk bijvoorbeeld aan een innovatiecultuur, een al lang bestaande industriële sector en een toonaangevend onderwijssysteem. De uitdaging die voor ons ligt, is om al onze capaciteiten op vernieuwende wijze te orkestreren en de transitie te versnellen op een manier die samenleving, klimaat en economie ten goede komt. 

De Klerk: “Wat je niet wilt is dat bedrijven hun deuren in Nederland sluiten en in een ander land met dezelfde uitstoot verdergaan. De vraag is dus hoe we ervoor zorgen dat we economische daad- en draagkracht houden zonder daarbij onze verantwoordelijkheid ten aanzien van het klimaat te verzaken. Oftewel, we moeten opnieuw kijken wat onze rol is in de energietransitie en waarin we willen investeren als B.V. Nederland. Belangrijk is dat die keuzes passen bij de capaciteit van ons land en hetgeen waar we goed in (willen) zijn.” 

Oudmaijer: “We zijn in Nederland al een tijd bezig met waterstof, mede om de grote industrie te faciliteren. Als we ervoor kiezen om daar vol op in te zetten, dan zou de overheid met een duidelijke visie moeten komen. Stil staan bij vragen als: Op welke type waterstofdragers zetten we in? Waar willen we waterstof wel en niet voor gebruiken, en hoe gaan we dat als overheid faciliteren? De overheid zal een faciliterende rol moeten pakken, zodat bedrijven een afgewogen investeringsbeslissing kunnen maken. Bijvoorbeeld door te zorgen dat er sneller vergunningen worden afgegeven, het duidelijk is waarvoor we het willen gebruiken en door locaties aan te wijzen waar fabrieken gebouwd kunnen worden.”

De Klerk: “Een ander idee is om het North Sea Consortium te versterken door een visie en een uitvoeringsplan te creëren. Dat positioneert de Noordzee als een krachtcentrale van de Noordwest-Europese offshore op het gebied van windenergie- en waterstofproductie. Op die manier zet je Nederland neer als krachtpatser en dient het als een mondiale blauwdruk voor een succesvolle energietransitie.”

Oudmaijer: “Begin hiermee door als overheid een duidelijke visie neer te leggen en samen met het bedrijfsleven pilotprojecten te starten om uit te vinden wat wel en niet werkt. Een iteratief proces waarbij overheid en bedrijfsleven hand in hand de meest succesvolle initiatieven verder brengen, waardoor duidelijk wordt wat daadwerkelijk impact oplevert. De tijd om het laaghangend fruit te plukken is voorbij, het gaat nu om heldere keuzes en concrete acties!”