De groene Olympische Spelen in Tokyo

In early November, I travelled to Barcelona for the third time to attend the Smart City Expo World Congress. Together with the Amsterdam InChange Team, some of our network partners, and the Dutch delegation, we put together a strong content-focused programme, gained inspiration, and strengthened both international and national connections. In this article, I’ll briefly share some of my personal highlights from this trip. 

International Delegations: Building International Connections and Knowledge Exchange at the Expo

During the congress, I organised several guided visits from the Dutch Pavilion in collaboration with the DMI-Ecosystem. The aim of these visits was to connect the Dutch delegation with international colleagues and facilitate knowledge exchange. At the busy expo, full of companies, cities, regions, and conference stages, it’s really appreciated to join planned meetings on specific themes. It’s also a great chance to meet many international representatives in just a few days, since everyone is in the same place at the same time. 

We visited and connected with the pavilions of EIT Urban Mobility, Forum Virium (Helsinki), the European Commission, and Catalonian innovations. Topics such as The Future of Mobility, Digital Twins, and Net Zero Cities were central to the discussions. It was a good opportunity to strengthen existing networks and establish new connections. For myself, for Amsterdam InChange, and for the participants joining the meetings.  

A few aspects of the visits particularly stood out to me. At Forum Virium Helsinki we met with Timo Sillander and Jaana Halonen. I was impressed by their work with Digital Twins. They focus not only on the technology itself and the efficiency of urban systems, but also on the social dimensions a digital simulation can play into. Think of; unequal distributions of risks related to climate change and extreme weather conditions.  

I also appreciated the efforts of the European Commission. They are working to make it easier to navigate research topics, funding opportunities, and findings related to themes like energy-neutral cities. With their new marketplace, there is more focus on small and medium-sized cities across Europe, helping them to benefit from innovations that are often developed in larger urban areas.   

Collaborating Internationally on a Regional Challenge: Zero-Emission Zones and City Logistics

On Tuesday, my colleague Chris and I organised a session on zero-emission city logistics. We brought together representatives from Oslo, Helsinki, Stockholm, Munich, and EIT Urban Mobility, as well as the Dutch municipalities of Haarlemmermeer and Amsterdam. 

The session built on connections we made during other events on Sunday and Monday, bringing together an international group of stakeholders interested in this topic. During the discussion, we compared how different cities are approaching zero-emission zones and identified shared challenges, particularly in policymaking and working with logistics companies and local entrepreneurs. 

It was interesting to see how this topic lends itself so well to international comparison and exchange. For instance, while Amsterdam will be one of the first to implement a strict ZE zone in the city centre, other cities are already ahead in areas like charging infrastructure and the transition to cargo bikes. The group was eager to keep the discussion going, and we’re already planning a follow-up online meeting to continue learning from one another.  

Future-Proof Sports Fields, International Dinners, and Bicycles

Finally, a few other topics worth mentioning: I joined an international session hosted by the City of Amsterdam about future-proof sports fields. It was inspiring to reflect on the value and potential of sports fields for neighbourhoods, as well as their use as testing grounds for sustainable innovations. For me, the session reinforced how important these spaces are for local communities in cities, and sparked a new personal interest in this subject. 

I also really enjoyed both our own international changemakers’ dinner and another international dinner hosted by Drees & Sommer (thanks for the invitation!). Bringing together an international network — whether as individuals or in small groups — and mixing them at the table sparked meaningful conversations that felt different from those during the formal congress sessions or workshops. 

Lastly, it’s great to see more Superblocks and bicycles in the city every year! Go Barcelona! 

During our Knowledge and Demo Day on 10 October (2024), Guus Kruijssen and Rombout Huisman (Province of North Holland) led a working session on their recent scenario studies – Smart Mobility North Holland 2050. In this report, I will share the four ‘Context’ scenarios they developed, the process, and the discussions with the session participants.

Objectives of the Scenario Study

What do we actually mean by future visions and scenarios? What are the different types, and how can they be used? A discussion among the participants quickly highlighted the many different motivations, forms, and use cases. Rombout and Guus began by explaining their aim for this study.

The province of North Holland plays various roles in the field of mobility as a policymaker, road manager, and concession provider. Given the major challenges related to housing, CO2 emissions reduction, and road safety, their perspective on the future of mobility revolves around Reducing (travel), Improving (travel options), and Changing (travel behaviour). This perspective forms the basis for developing, operationalising, and maintaining their strategy – a cycle that spans approximately 50 years. However, digital developments and innovations are making the world change faster than ever, necessitating greater awareness of possible contextual changes. The key question is: how do the choices we make now relate to the different possible futures?

To explore this, a team of colleagues embarked on developing four challenging context scenarios. Working with internal and external experts, they moved from an environmental analysis and contextual factors to scenarios and strategic insights. The process and outcomes were kept administrative and had no political or policy-driven focus. The result is not a set of visions to choose from but rather a representation of various developments and challenges that may arise, to which you can assess your own projects and actions against.

The Four Scenarios

Four distinct context scenarios were developed. Here is a summary and a few key aspects of each:

1. Steady Traffic (Doorgaand verkeer) A slow shift towards a green economy, benefiting only the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area (MRA). The population grows to 3.7 million. Cars remain dominant, transitioning gradually to electric, but roads and trains stay congested. Digitalisation and innovation progress slowly, with limited impact on efficiency and accessibility.
2. Turbulent Weather (Rukwinden) Ongoing shocks and international instability, with the US leaving NATO and significant climate change. The population increases to 3.1 million. Fuel crises accelerate electrification, but investment focuses on priorities like the navy. Technological scepticism grows due to data breaches, impacting accessibility.
3. Our Own Path (Eigen weg) The Netherlands withdraws from international cooperation and leaves the EU, focusing on healthcare, circularity, and local production. The economy contracts due to trade restrictions and brain drain, and the population decreases to 2.6 million. Fewer traffic jams, but cars remain significant alongside increased regional public transport. Distrust in innovations and sustainability rises, with informal sharing preferred over commercial options.
4. Transition (Overstappen) Climate change accelerates transition and AI development. The population stabilises at 3.1 million. Non-sustainable sectors disappear, and reduced traffic results from digitalisation and virtualisation. Space is primarily used for energy infrastructure, and circular processes increase. The EU and the national government push for innovations like autonomous transport and shared mobility. Ownership is limited to the wealthiest, and digital infrastructure becomes a priority.

Outcomes and Follow-Up

Rombout and Guus guided the group through the process and results of these scenario studies. We discussed the developments and contextual factors used in the study, and considered if anything was missing. They openly shared their approach and how they plan to use these insights to assess their own policies and projects, and welcomed questions and suggestions from the group. There was also room for discussing the challenges. Because, while people can easily align on scenarios, opinions can still vary greatly on how we should act on them now.

Many of our partners are already working with future visions and scenarios. See, for instance, our report on a session with trendwatchers from the Municipality of Amsterdam. The purpose, process, and impact on policy, projects, and actions vary across organisations. However, there was agreement that sharing methods and scenarios is valued, particularly in a neutral setting like our innovation network. It fosters mutual understanding and offers valuable lessons from each other's research methods and practical applications. In the coming period, we will explore how we can contribute to this in our network on various transition themes.

Would you like to know more about this study from the Province of North Holland? Feel free to send me a message, and I will connect you. Interested in brainstorming about how we can approach this more frequently or systematically within the network? Let me know at pelle@amsterdaminchange.com.

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